10/5/2006

With just over a month remaining until the Final Election, Democratic nominee Deval Patrick leads Republican nominee Kerry Healey by 21% (49%-28%), according to a 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll released today.  Independent Christy Mihos (6%) and Green Rainbow nominee Grace Ross (1%) were far behind.  There were 16% of likely voters undecided.

Though Republicans have controlled the corner office since 1990 – through the administrations of William Weld, Paul Cellucci, Jane Swift and Mitt Romney – this poll suggests that Deval Patrick is primed for a victory on Election Day, November 7.

"Deval Patrick is riding a wave of change," said David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.  "Although voters may agree with Kerry Healey on selected issues, they are still voting for Patrick because they want to see the state put on the right track."

The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll also reveals that voters overwhelmingly oppose issuing driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants (67%-25%) and to grant in-state tuition to public colleges and universities (65%-24%).  Healey’s position on these two issues reflects what the majority of Massachusetts voters think.  Similarly, on the subject of taxes, a majority of voters (54%-39%) support the Healey position of rolling back the state income tax from 5.3% to 5.0%.

Healey’s personal unpopularity may account for her weakness in the head-to-head matchup with Patrick.  Only 34% of likely voters viewed her favorably, while 43% looked upon her unfavorably.  In sharp contrast, Patrick had a 55% favorable rating, while just a 24% unfavorable rating.  In addition, 46% of respondents said that they thought Massachusetts was heading on the wrong track, while only 33% said Massachusetts was heading in the right direction.

"Kerry Healey’s biggest problem isn’t her message – it’s that she’s the messenger," said Paleologos.  "She’s not only unpopular, but there aren’t enough undecided voters to give her the win.  Therefore, Kerry Healey needs help from Deval Patrick to defeat Deval Patrick."

As Healey tries to make an issue of the Benjamin LaGuer case, the poll shows how difficult that may be.  Forty-five percent of voters said that Patrick was not soft on crime, while just 17% think he is.  As for Healey, more of those polled (38%) think she talks tough on crime, while slightly less (36%) believe she actually is tough on crime.

The poll also points to a potential problem for Healey on the tax issue. Only 29% of voters feel she can keep her no-new-taxes pledge, while 55% say she could not.  Furthermore, nearly half of the voters (49%) believe that taxes will go up if Patrick is elected Governor, while just 26% feel that taxes would not rise.

In other poll findings, the top four issues among likely voters are: taxes (22%), education (17%), economy/jobs (13%) and healthcare (12%).  Illegal immigration was only cited as the most important issue by 6% of likely voters.

Of the three ballot questions, voters responded in the following way: Question 1 (sale of wine by food stores), 47% yes, 44% no; Question 2 (nomination of candidates for public office), 27% yes, 48% no; and Question 3 (family childcare providers), 42% yes, 33% no.

All Democratic nominees for constitutional offices had large leads over their respective opponents, ranging from 35 to 45 points depending on the office.
 
The Suffolk University poll was conducted October 2 thru October 4, 2006.  The margin of error is +/- 4.38% at a 95% level of confidence.  All 500 Massachusetts likely voters indicated they were registered and that they were certain or may vote on November 7.

Suffolk University is scheduled to release 352 pages of cross-tabulation data, marginals, and charts on its website on Friday, October 6, 2006.  For more information, please contact Suffolk adjunct professor David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

Suffolk University, located on Boston’s historic Beacon Hill, with campuses in Madrid, Spain and Dakar, Senegal (Africa), is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by its teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty.  Suffolk offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 70 areas of study.  Its mission is to provide quality education at a reasonable cost for students of all ages and backgrounds, with strong emphasis on diversity.  Suffolk has a combined enrollment of more than 8,300 full-time and part-time students at its Law School, College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer School of Management.

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