Political Research Center
Polling Across the Nation
SUPRC's polls have tracked elections for, President, Governor and US Senate, as well as national, statewide and local issues in many states, including: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Virginia.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Clinton and Trump Even in Ohio
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Ohio general-election voters was conducted between October 17 and October 19, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 88 Ohio counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Kasich, Rob Portman, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Ted Strickland, Joseph DeMare, Richard Duncan, Tom Connors, Scott Rupert, presidential debate
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: North Carolina Poll Shows Clinton Leading Trump by 2 Points
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely North Carolina general-election voters was conducted between October 10 and October 12, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 100 North Carolina counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Deborah Ross, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Richard Burr, Sean Haugh, presidential debates, Access Hollywood video, Hurricane Matthew
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Nevada Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Leading By 6 Points
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Nevada general-election voters was conducted between September 27 and September 29, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 16 Nevada counties as well as Carson City were grouped into three general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Catherine Cortez Masto, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Joe Heck, Brian Sandoval, Harry Reid, Darrell Castle, Rocky De La Fuente, presidential debate, public safety, Tony Gumina, Tom Jones, Thomas "Tom" Sawyer, Jarrod Williams, gun control, background checks, marijuana legalization, energy deregulation
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows a Statistical Tie in Florida
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Florida general election voters was conducted between September 19 and September 21, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 67 Florida counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Rick Scott, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Patrick Murphy, Marco Rubio, Bill Nelson, Darrell Castle, Rocky De La Fuente, Paul Stanton, Basil Dalack, Tony Khoury, Steven Machat, Bruce Nathan, public safety, Zika virus, Centers for Disease Control, Amendment 2, medical marijuana
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Ohio Poll Shows Trump Edging Clinton by 3 Points
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Ohio general election voters was conducted between September 12 and September 14, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 88 Ohio counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Kasich, Rob Portman, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Ted Strickland, Joseph DeMare, Richard Duncan, Tom Connors, Scott Rupert, trustworthiness, honesty, presidential debates, public safety
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll of North Carolina Shows Trump at 44 Percent to Clinton’s 41 Percent
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely North Carolina general election voters was conducted between September 5 and September 7, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 100 North Carolina counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Deborah Ross, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Richard Burr, Sean Haugh, trustworthy, honest, public safety
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Michigan Poll Shows Clinton Leading Trump by 7 Points
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Michigan general election voters was conducted between August 22 and August 24, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 83 Michigan counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Darrell Castle, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Emidio Mimi Soltysik, Rick Snyder
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk University Nevada Poll Shows Clinton at 44 Percent to Trump’s 42 Percent
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Nevada general election voters was conducted between August 15 and August 17, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 16 Nevada counties and one independent city were grouped into three general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Catherine Cortez Mastro, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Joe Heck, Brian Sandoval, Harry Reid, Wall Street, firearms sales, marijuana, electrical utilities
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk University Iowa Poll Shows Trump Leading Clinton by 1 Point
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Iowa general election voters was conducted between August 8 and August 10, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 99 Iowa counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Chuck Grassley, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Patty Judge, Rob Hogg, Zika virus
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Clinton Leading Trump by 6 Points in Florida
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Florida general election voters was conducted between August 1 and August 3, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 67 Florida counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Rick Scott, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Bill Nelson, Marco Rubio, Bernie Sanders, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, "Rocky" De La Fuente, Alan Grayson, Pam Keith, Reginald Luster, Patrick Murphy, Carlos Beruff, Ernie Rivera, Dwight Mark Anthony Young, Zika Virus
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Clinton Leading Trump by 9 Points in Pennsylvania
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Pennsylvania general election voters was conducted between July 25 and July 27, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 67 Pennsylvania counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Katie McGinty, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Pat Toomey, Tim Kaine, Mike Pence, ISIS, Muslim immigration, assault weapons, Clinton email investigation, FBI, Congress, Supreme Court, Post Office, IRS, Social Security, President, US Armed Forces
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Trump Holds Lead in Poll of Florida GOP Primary Voters
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Florida Republican Primary voters was conducted between March 7 and March 9, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were either very likely to vote or had already voted in the Republican presidential primary. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar Republican primaries in past elections. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Rick Scott, Mitt Romney, George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Richard Nixon
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Clinton Crushing Democratic Field in Iowa
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Iowa Democratic Caucus voters was conducted between August 20 and August 24, 2015, and is based on a statewide random sample drawn from a list of registered Democratic voters who indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in their local Democratic Caucuses for president in six months. Each of Iowa's five areas and demographic information were determined from past contested Democratic presidential caucuses including 2008 and 2004, using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely caucus voters. Iowa's 99 counties were grouped into five general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb, Barack Obama, Tom Harkin, State Department email investigation, minimum wage
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Trump Leads Iowa GOP Field but Shows Less Strength among Debate Viewers
Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Iowa Republican Caucus voters was conducted between August 7 and August 10, 2015, and is based on a statewide random sample drawn from a list of registered Republican voters who indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in their local Republican Caucuses in six months. Each of Iowa's five areas and demographic information were determined from past contested Republican presidential caucuses including 2008 and 2012, using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely caucus voters. Iowa's 99 counties were grouped into five general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Scott Walker, FoxNews debate
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Landrieu, Cassidy Winning Top 2 Spots in Louisiana Primary for U.S. Senate
Paleologos on the Poll: Louisiana
Statement of Methodology: The survey was conducted via random-digit dial of landline and cell phones. All respondents said that they are very likely to vote or had already voted in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Thursday, Oct. 23, through Sunday, Oct. 26. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Mary Landrieu, Hillary Clinton, Bill Cassidy, Rob Maness, Bobby Jindal, Common Core, fracking, Ebola virus, Obamacare, Medicaid, economy
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Republican Gardner Leading by 7 Points in Colorado US Senate Race
Paleologos on the Poll: Colorado
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University/USA TODAY survey was conducted via landline and cell phone. All respondents indicated that they were very likely to vote or had already voted in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, October 18, through Tuesday, October 21. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Mark Udall, John Hickenlooper, Cory Gardner, Bob Beauprez, campaign ads, Ebola virus, Obamacare, economy, marijuana implimentation, personhood, genetically modified foods
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Ernst Pulling Away in Iowa Senate Race
Paleologos on the Poll: Iowa
Statement of Methodology: The survey was conducted via landline and cell phone respondents. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Oct. 11, through Tuesday, Oct. 14. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Tom Harkin, Terry Branstad, Bruce Braley, Joni Ernst, Jack Hatch, economy, Obamacare, voter ID laws, political ads
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: North Carolina Poll Shows Hagan Still Leading by 2 Points
Paleologos on the Poll: North Carolina
Statement of Methodology: The survey was conducted via random-digit dial of landline and cell phones. All respondents said that they are very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Oct. 4, through Tuesday, Oct. 7. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Kay Hagan, Thom Tillis, Sean Haugh, Pat McCrory, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Obamacare, economy
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Arkansas Poll Shows Tight Races for US Senate & Governor
Paleologos on the Poll: Arkansas
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University/USA TODAY survey was conducted via landline and cell phone. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Sept. 20, through Tuesday, Sept. 23. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Mike Beebe, Mark Pryor, Tom Cotton, Mike Ross, Asa Hutchinson, term limits, lobbying, alcohol legalization, minimum wage, Obamacare, economy
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Dead Heat in Colorado US Senate Race
Paleologos on the Poll: Colorado
Statement of Methodology: The survey was conducted via landline and cell phone. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Sept. 13, through Tuesday, Sept. 16. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues: Mark Udall, Cory Gardner, Gaylon Kent, Raul Acosta, Bill Hammons, Steve Shogun, Bob Beauprez, John Hickenlooper, Harry Hempy, Matthew Hess, Mike Dunafon, Paul Fiorino, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, Obamacare, marijuana, personhood
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Michigan Races for US Senate & Governor Trending Democratic
Paleologos on the Poll: Michigan
Statement of Methodology: The survey was conducted via land line and cell phone. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Sept. 6, through Wednesday, Sept. 10. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Carl Levin, Rick Snyder, Matt Schauer, Mary Buzuma, Paul Homeniuk, Mark McFarlin, Terri Lynn Land, Gary Peters, Jim Fulner, Chris Wahmhoff, Richard Matkin, Obamacare
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Iowa Senate Race Dead Even
Paleologos on the Poll: Iowa
Statement of Methodology: The survey was conducted via landline and cell phone. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Aug. 23, through Tuesday, Aug. 26. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues: Tom Harkin, Terry Branstad, Bruce Braley, Joni Ernst, Jack Hatch, Lee Hieb, Jonathan Narcisse, Rick Stewart, Bob Quast, Douglas Butzier, Ruth Smith, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Obamacare, economy
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: NC Poll Shows Incumbent Senator Hagan Up by 2 Points
Paleologos on the Poll: North Carolina
Statement of Methodology: The survey was conducted via random-digit dial of 68 percent landline and 32 percent cell phone respondents. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, August 16, through Tuesday, August 19. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues: Kay Hagan, Thom Tillis, Sean Haugh, Barack Obama, Pat McCrory, Dan River, Obamacare
Iowa Republican Primary:
Black Hawk County Marginals (PDF)
Boone County Marginals (PDF)
Washington County Marginals (PDF)
Montana Democratic Primary:
Cascade County Marginals (PDF)
Glacier County Marginals (PDF)
Lake County Marginals (PDF)
Press Release: Political Research Center Bellwethers Predict Nominees in Key Senate Races
Statement of Methodology: Using party primary voter lists, the bellwether IDs were called using a tight screen. All respondents indicated that they were likely to vote in the state’s respective primaries or had already voted. All other respondents were screened out. The field was conducted Tuesday, May 27 – Friday, May 30, 2014. The margin of error for 300 respondents is +/- 5.65 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Bellwethers are designed to predict winners, not margins or runners-up.
Bellwether Marginals:
Susquehanna County (PDF)
Wayne County (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk University Bellwethers Show Wolf the Likely Democratic Nominee for Governor in Pennsylvania
Statement of Methodology: Using party primary good voter lists the bellwether IDs were called using a tight screen. All respondents indicated that they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary on Tuesday, May 20. All other respondents were screened out. The field was conducted Monday, May 12 – Wednesday, May 14. The margin of error for the Wayne County bellwether is +/- 5.65 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The margin of error for the Susquehanna County bellwether is +/- 6.93 percentage points. Bellwethers are designed to predict winners, not margins or runners-up.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Jeb Bush and Rick Perry Leading GOP Presidential Pack in Minnesota
Statement of Methodology: The statewide Suffolk University survey used a split sample of landline and cell phone numbers and a screen to filter out low voter intensity. The field of 800 likely voters was conducted Thursday, April 24, through Monday, April 28. The margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The subset of 198 likely GOP primary voters is +/-6.96 percentage points. The subset of "first choice" presidential selections from 87 Republican and 100 Democratic precinct caucus-goers is +/-10.5 percentage points and +/-9.8 percentage points respectively.
Key Names/Issues: Hillary Clinton, Mark Dayton, Julianne Ortman, Rob Farnsworth, Scott Honour, Jeff Johnson, Marty Seifert, Dave Thompson, Kurt Zellers, Al Franken, Jim Abeler, Chris Dahlberg, Mike McFadden, Jeb Bush, Elizabeth Warren, Obamacare
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk University Iowa Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Strong and GOP Field Scattered in Advance of Iowa Caucuses
Statement of Methodology: The statewide Suffolk University survey used a split sample of landline and cell phone numbers and a screen to filter out low voter intensity. The field of 800 likely voters was conducted Thursday, April 3, through Tuesday, April 8. The margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The subset of 224 likely Republican Primary June voters carries an error rate of +/-6.55 percentage points. The margin of error is +/-8.7 percentage points for the 127 GOP caucus-goers and +/-8.4 percentage points for the 135 Democratic caucus-goers surveyed.
Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Tom Harkin, Terry Branstad, Bruce Braley, Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst, Mark Jacobs, Scott Schaben, Matt Whitaker, Tom Hoefling, Jack Hatch, Lee Hieb, Iowa caucuses, Obamacare, voter ID
New Hampshire & Ohio Presidential Bellwethers
November 5, 2012
Statement of Methodology: The IDs of 300 likely voters for each bellwether were conducted November 1-4 using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of sampling error is +/- 5.65 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Presidential Race is Neck-and-Neck in Ohio
Statement of Methodology: This statewide survey of 600 likely Ohio voters was conducted October 18-21, 2012 using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross-Tabs (PDF)
Press Release: Nevada Poll Shows Obama Edging Romney
Statement of Methodology: The statewide survey of 500 registered Nevada voters was conducted October 6-9, 2012, using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Florida Poll Shows Obama with Slight Lead
Statement of Methodology: The statewide survey of 600 registered Florida voters was conducted Sept. 27-30, 2012, using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross-Tabs (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk University/NBC12 Poll Shows Obama Clinging to a 2-Point Lead in VA
Statement of Methodology: The statewide survey of 600 likely Virginia general election voters was conducted September 24-26, 2012, using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Florida Voters: Keep an Eye on Neighborhood Watch
Statement of Methodology: The statewide survey of 600 Florida registered voters was conducted May 6 - May 8, 2012, using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross-Tabs (PDF)
Press Release: Ohio Poll Shows Santorum Edging Romney
Statement of Methodology: The statewide survey of 500 likely Ohio Republican Primary voters was conducted March 3-4, 2012, using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. All respondents indicated that they were “very likely” to vote in Tuesday’s Republican Primary or had “already voted.” The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Bellwethers:
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Releases:
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Henrico County (PDF)
Press Release: McDonnell Leads Deeds by 14 Points in Virginia
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University statewide poll was conducted Oct. 26 through Oct. 28, 2009, using live interviewers. The margin of error on the study of 400 is +/- 5 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the Virginia statewide survey were likely voters. Separate from the statewide study, there were 250 respondents identified from Henrico County on Oct. 27 and 28.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
San Benito County (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk Poll of California: Incumbent Boxer with 9 Point Lead for U.S. Senate
Statement of Methodology: The statewide survey of 600 California likely voters was conducted Oct. 21-24, 2010 using live telephone interviews. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The San Benito County bellwether included 300 likely voters polled 10/23-10/24. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Town of Plainfield (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk Poll: Democrats Leading for Governor and U.S. Senate in Connecticut
Statement of Methodology: The statewide survey of 500 Connecticut likely voters was conducted with live telephone interviews Oct. 19-20, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The town of Plainfield bellwether included 300 likely voters polled 10/19-10/20. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Nye County (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk University Poll Shows Harry Reid with 3 Point Lead in Tight Nevada Senate Race
Statement of Methodology: The statewide survey of 500 Nevada likely voters was conducted Oct. 8-11, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The Nye County bellwether included 300 likely voters polled 10/10-10/11. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tab (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Clark County (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk University Poll of Ohio: Republicans Leading for U.S. Senator and Governor
Statement of Methodology: The statewide survey of 500 Ohio likely voters was conducted Oct. 4-6, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The Clark County bellwether included 300 likely voters polled 10/5-10/6. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Randolph County (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk University Poll Shows Democrat Quinn Leading for Governor in Illinois
Statement of Methodology: The statewide survey of 500 Illinois likely voters was conducted Sept. 30 – Oct. 3, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The Randolph County bellwether included 300 likely voters polled 10/2-10/3. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Erie County (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk University Poll Shows Republicans Lead for Senate, Governor
Statement of Methodology: The statewide survey of 500 Pennsylvania registered voters was conducted Sept. 24-27, 2010 using live telephone interviews. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The Erie County bellwether included 300 likely voters polled 9/26-9/27. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Press Release: Angle Leading in Nevada GOP Primary for U.S. Senate
Statement of Methodology: Suffolk University conducted the Republican Primary poll using live telephone interviews on Tuesday June 1, through Wednesday, June 2, 2010. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 400 is +/- 4.90 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents were likely Republican voters in the Nevada Primary to be held Tuesday, June 8.
Democratic Primary Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
York County Bellwether (PDF)
Republican Primary Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Lackawana County Bellwether (PDF)
Press Release: Suffolk University Poll of Primaries in Pennsylvania
Statement of Methodology: Suffolk University conducted two separate Primary polls through live telephone interviews. Each was fielded Monday, May 11, through Wednesday, May 13, 2010. The margin of error on each statewide survey of 400 is +/- 4.90 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic or Republican voters in the respective Pennsylvania Primaries to be held Tuesday, May 18.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Erie County (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Shows Fisher Breaking Away in Ohio Democratic Primary
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University statewide Democratic Primary poll was conducted was conducted by live telephone interviews Tuesday, April 27, through Thursday, April 29, 2010. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 400 is +/- 4.90 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic voters in the Ohio U.S. Senate Primary to be held Tuesday, May 4.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Gloucester County (PDF)
Press Release: Corzine Leads Christie By 9 Points In NJ Gubernatorial Race
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University statewide poll was conducted Oct. 22 through Oct. 25, 2009. The margin of error on the study of 400 is +/- 5 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the New Jersey statewide survey were likely voters. Separate from the statewide study, there were 350 respondents identified from Gloucester County on Oct. 24 and 25.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Marginals:
Accomack County Bellwether (PDF)
Press Release: Undecideds Key in VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University statewide poll was conducted June 1 through June 3, 2009 using live interviewers. The margin of error on the study of 500 is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were registered voters in Virginia who indicated they would vote in the Democratic Primary and could identify the correct timeframe of the Democratic Primary. The Virginia Democratic Primary Accomack County bellwether included 748 respondents phoned on June 2 and June 3, 2009.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Press Release: Mass. & Florida Look Favorably on Obama’s First 100 Days
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University/7NEWS polls of Massachusetts voters was conducted April 24 through April 27, 2009. The Florida poll was conducted April 26 through April 28. The margin of error on each study of 400 is +/- 4.9 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide surveys were registered voters.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Washoe County (PDF)
Press Release: Obama Surges to 10-Point Lead in Nevada
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University poll was conducted Thursday Oct. 23 through Monday Oct. 27. The margin of error on the study of 450 is +/- 4.6 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the Nevada statewide survey were likely voters. There were 299 respondents in the bellwether of Washoe County, Nevada, identified separately from the statewide poll.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Hillsborough County (PDF)
Monroe County (PDF)
Press Release: Obama Leads by 5% in Sunshine State
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University poll was conducted Thursday October 23, 2008, through Sunday, October 26, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 600 is +/- 4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the Florida statewide survey were likely voters. There were 303 respondents each from the bellwethers of Hillsborough and Monroe counties respectively, identified separately from the statewide poll.
Ohio Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Ohio Bellwether Results:
Perry County (PDF)
Missouri Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Missouri Bellwether Results:
Platte County (PDF)
Press Release: Obama Leads by 9 in Ohio, McCain Edges in Missouri
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University Ohio poll was conducted Thursday, Oct. 16, 2008, through Sunday, Oct. 19, 2008. The Missouri poll was conducted Friday, Oct. 17, 2008, through Sunday, Oct. 19, 2008. The margin of error on each study of 600 is +/- 4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from both surveys were likely voters from Ohio and Missouri. Separate from the statewide poll, there were 312 respondents from the Ohio bellwether of Perry County and 204 respondents from the Missouri bellwether of Platte County.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Alamosa County (PDF)
Press Release: Barack Obama Clings to 4 Point Lead in Colorado
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University poll was conducted Friday, October 10, 2008, through Monday, October 13, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 600 is +/- 4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the Colorado statewide survey were likely voters from all parties in Colorado. Separate from the statewide poll, there were 300 respondents from Alamosa County, Colorado.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Frequencies:
Accomack County (PDF)
Chesapeake City (PDF)
Press Release: Obama Overpowering McCain in Virginia
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University poll was conducted Friday, October 3, 2008, through Sunday, October 5, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 600 is +/- 4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the Virginia statewide survey were likely voters. In the bellwether polls, there were 282 respondents from Chesapeake city and 303 respondents from Accomack County, and both were surveyed separately from the statewide poll.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Washoe County (PDF)
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF)
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Alamosa County (PDF)
Press Release: Obama Leads McCain by 5 Percent in Colorado
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University poll was conducted Thursday, August 21, 2008, through Sunday, August 24, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 450 is +/- 4.6 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the Colorado statewide survey were likely voters from all parties in Colorado. Separate from the statewide poll there were 300 respondents from Alamosa County, Colorado.
Kentucky Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Kentucky Bellwether Results:
Montgomery County (PDF)
Oregon Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Oregon Bellwether Results:
Marion County (PDF)
Press Release: Clinton Solid in Kentucky; Oregon is Obama’s in Tight Race
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University polls were conducted May 17-18, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide surveys of 600 is +/- 4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide surveys were likely voters in the May 20 respective Democratic Presidential Primaries. The Suffolk University election predictor bellwether ID sister-tests (300 contacts, Montgomery County and 149 contacts, Marion County) were made May 18. There was an equal probability of contacting and interviewing likely Democratic voters, provided that they identified themselves as very likely or somewhat likely to take a Democratic ballot on Tuesday.
Statewide Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Bellwether Results:
Mason County (PDF)
Press Release: Poll Predicts 36-Point Clinton Landslide in W. Virginia
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University poll was conducted May 10 and May 11, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 600 is +/- 4.00 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely voters in the May 13 West Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary. The Suffolk University election predictor bellwether ID sister-test (400 contacts) was made May 10. There was an equal probability of contacting and interviewing registered voters of all party affiliations, provided that they identified themselves as likely to take a Democratic ballot on Tuesday.
Delaware County Bellwether Results:
Frequencies (PDF)
Press Release: Indiana Bellwether Points to Clinton Win
Statement of Methodology: Suffolk University interviewed 361 likely Democratic voters from a randomly selected list of 5,000 residents of Delaware County, Ind. All phoning took place on Sunday, May 4, and Monday, May 5, 2008. There was an equal probability of contacting and interviewing registered voters of all party affiliations, provided that they identified themselves as very likely or somewhat likely to take a Democratic ballot on Tuesday. The execution of the identification interviews was by live telephone call.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Press Release: Poll: Clinton Leads Obama in Hoosier State
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University poll was conducted May 3 and May 4, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 600 is +/- 4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic Primary voters in the May 6 Indiana Democratic Presidential Primary.
Allegheny County Bellwether Results:
Frequencies (PDF)
Press Release: Bellwether Points to Clinton Win in Penn.
Statement of Methodology: Suffolk University interviewed 402 likely Democratic voters from a randomly selected list of 5,000 residents of Allegheny County. All phoning took place on Sunday, April 20, and Monday, April 21. There was an equal probability of contacting and interviewing newly registered voters, recent party-switch registrants and longtime Democratic households, provided those contacted were registered Democrats and intended to vote in the Democratic Primary on Tuesday, April 22.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Press Release: Poll: Clinton Headed for Keystone State Win
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University poll was conducted April 19 - April 20, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 600 is +/- 4.00 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic Primary voters in the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary.
Ohio Democratic Primary Bellwethers:
Greene County (PDF)
Morgan County (PDF)
Rhode Island Republican Primary Bellwethers:
Providence (PDF)
Press Release: Bellwethers Ring for Clinton and McCain
Statement of Methodology: Suffolk University interviewed 300 likely voters from each of the three counties. A random select of all available registered voters with phone numbers was used as the core sample, which did not include newly registered voters. The execution of the identification interviews was by live telephone call.
Poll Documents:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs (PDF)
Press Release: Clinton Headed for Win in Buckeye State
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University poll was conducted Saturday, March 1, through Sunday, March 2, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 400 is +/- 4.90 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic voters in the March 4 Ohio Presidential Primary.
Massachusetts Poll Documents:
Waltham (PDF)
Stoneham-Nahant (PDF)
Tennessee Poll Documents:
Knox County Marginals (PDF)
California Poll Documents:
Statewide Republican Primary:
Banner 1 (PDF)
Banner 2 (PDF)
Banner 3 (PDF)
Banner 4 (PDF)
Statewide Democratic Primary:
Banner 1 (PDF)
Banner 2 (PDF)
Banner 3 (PDF)
Banner 4 (PDF)
Frequencies:
Republican (PDF)
Democratic (PDF)
Press Release: McCain Clings to Lead in California GOP Primary
Statement of Methodology: The Suffolk University poll of likely Republican voters was conducted Thursday, Jan. 31, and Friday, Feb. 1, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 500 is +/- 4.38 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Republican voters in the California Presidential Primary on Feb. 5.
Marginals:
Marginals (PDF)
Tables:
Banner 1 (PDF) Entire survey by gender, likely to vote, geographical region, party labels, political philosophy, & most important issue subcategories
Banner 2 (PDF) Entire survey by economically better or worse off, age, veteran in household, residency, education, and marital status sub-categories
Banner 3 (PDF) Entire survey by 2004 Ballot Test Bush vs. Kerry, 2004 Ballot Test Bush vs. Edwards, 2004 Ballot Test Mo. Governor, 2000 Vote for President,& Expect to be next President in 2004 subcategories
Banner 4 (PDF) Entire Survey by same-sex marriage favor/oppose, civil unions favor/oppose, US Constitutional Amendment Restricting Definition of Marriage favor/oppose, Floating Gambling facilities favor/oppose, Conceal Carry Law favor/oppose, Iraq War increased domestic security/long-term security agree/disagree, & Bush exaggerated weapons of mass destruction agree/disagree subcategories
Banner 5 (PDF) Entire survey by Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings of George Bush, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Dick Cheney, John Ashcroft, & Ralph Nader
Marginals:
Marginals (PDF)
Cross Tabs:
"Survey by gender, geographical area, age, veteran in household, union household, and race" (PDF)
Statement of Methodology: Poll fielded Saturday, January 31-Monday February 2, 2004. 400 respondents. Margin of error is +/- 4.90 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
