With fewer than 14 weeks to go before the November presidential election, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in both two-way and four-way Florida ballot scenarios, according to a new Suffolk University poll of Florida likely general-election voters.
In a two-way race, Clinton (48 percent) leads Trump (42 percent) by six percentage points, with 9 percent undecided.
In a four-way scenario, Clinton (43 percent) leads Trump (39 percent) by 4 percentage points, while Libertarian Gary Johnson receives 4 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein gets 3 percent, with 11 percent undecided.
According to the latest registration statistics from the Florida Division of Elections, 38 percent of registered voters are Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 26 percent independents.
“Hillary Clinton is leading thanks to southern Florida and women,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Trump is even seeing some Republicans holding back at this point while Clinton is a bit stronger among registered Democrats.”
In the two-way ballot test, Clinton led by 12 points among women (50 percent to 38 percent) while carrying the south Florida region 57 percent to 33 percent. Trump won among registered Republicans 74 percent to 16 percent but Clinton performed a little better among registered Democrats, besting Trump 81 percent to 13 percent.
When Clinton and Trump voters were asked if their vote is for their candidate or against the other, 67 percent of Clinton voters said their vote was for her while 28 percent said it was more of a vote against Trump. Conversely, only 52 percent of Trump voters said their vote was for him, while 39 percent said it was more of a vote against Clinton.
Asked if they feel more or less safe living in America than they did five to 10 years ago, 57 percent of Floridians said less safe, 11 percent more safe, and 28 percent said there was no change. Likely voters said that the number one issue facing the next president is terrorism and national security (26 percent), followed by jobs/economy (18 percent), and nominating Supreme Court justices (10 percent).
With over a dozen Zika cases identified in the Wynwood area of Miami, Floridians from all regions of the state are concerned about the Zika virus spreading in the United States. Nearly 42 percent of likely voters said that they were very concerned about the virus spreading over the next several months, with an additional 34 percent somewhat concerned.
Rubio could return to the U.S. Senate
After his failed attempt to win the Republican nomination for president, Marco Rubio has a double-digit lead over each of his likely Democratic opponents in a bid to hang on to his seat. Rubio led Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy 46 percent to 33 percent with 19 percent undecided. He also led Democrat Alan Grayson 45 percent to 31 percent with 22 percent undecided. Both Murphy and Grayson are in a five-way Democratic primary on August 30. Grayson is the closest opponent to Murphy with the other three candidates in low single digits, according to the poll, with 40 percent still undecided. Rubio is poised to win the four-person Republican primary, polling at 62 percent with his nearest competitor, businessman Carlos Beruff at 12 percent, with just 24 percent undecided.
In 2012, the final Suffolk Florida poll predicted a 3-point win for Democrat Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney. Obama prevailed by 1 point, 50 percent to 49 percent.
The Florida survey of 500 likely voters was conducted August 1-3 using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the 2016 general election. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website: www.suffolk.edu/SUPRC. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, firstname.lastname@example.org.