Suffolk University - Press Releases

BOSTON – While Congress grapples with a $700 billion dollar financial backstop package to salvage the credit markets, Democrat Barack Obama (46 percent) leads Republican John McCain (42 percent), in the state of Florida, according to a Suffolk University/WSVN-7News Miami poll released today.

“There is an inverse relationship between the financial health and well being of the United States and Barack Obama’s political campaign,” said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "Like a see-saw, the lower the economy goes, the higher Obama’s poll numbers. Ultimately, If Florida votes Obama, the rest of the battleground states may not matter."

Comparable polls over the past week have shown the Florida race deadlocked.

The recent Wall Street turmoil has not reflected well on the Republican Party. When likely voters were asked which political party -- if any -- deserved blame for the economic downturn, 39 percent blamed the Republicans; 19 percent blamed Democrats; 24 percent said neither; and 17 percent were undecided.

Republican Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin shows only a minimal added benefit to the Republican ticket, while expectations for her performance in tomorrow night’s debate are quite low. Forty percent of respondents said that her presence on the ticket made them more likely to vote for McCain; 36 percent less likely; and 22 percent weren’t sure.

Forty-six percent said they expected Democrat Joe Biden to win the vice presidential debate, while 31 percent picked Palin, and 17 percent were undecided.

“The “Biden bar” is quite high in terms of the voter expectation level leading up to his debate performance,” said Paleologos. “If Palin were competitive in the debate, or if she were to be perceived as winning, her success could benefit the top of the GOP ticket.”

Eighty percent of all Florida likely voters said they planned to watch the debate, and 74 percent said that this debate would be very important or somewhat important in determining whom they will vote for.

Respondents said they trust Obama more than McCain by the slimmest of margins, 45 percent to 44 percent. This is consistent with the 7NEWS (WHDH-TV, Boston)/Suffolk University poll of likely New Hampshire voters released last week.

Of the four presidential and vice-presidential candidates, more voters identified with Obama: 32 percent chose him when asked which candidate was “most like you,” compared to 23 percent who chose McCain. Obama also led McCain 42 percent to 32 percent when respondents were asked which of the four cares about the problems of people “like you.”

A number of voters said they support third-party candidates, with Libertarian Bob Barr the choice of 2 percent of voters polled and Green Party Cynthia McKinney and Ecology Party Ralph Nader each receiving 1 percent.

The top issues for Florida voters were economy/jobs (43 percent), moral values (10 percent), health care (9 percent), Iraq War (9 percent), terrorism (8 percent), and taxes (7 percent).

The Florida bellwethers of Hillsborough & Monroe counties showed Obama leading McCain comfortably, 46 percent to 38 percent. Bellwether IDs are designed to predict outcomes -- not margins -- and to supplement the Suffolk University statewide polls.

In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries and, when in agreement with the statewide Suffolk polls of the respective states, were 100 percent accurate in predicting winners.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted Saturday Sept. 27, 2008, through Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 600 is +/- 4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the Florida statewide survey were likely voters. There were 300 respondents each from the bellwethers of Hillsborough and Monroe counties, identified separately from the statewide poll. Marginals and 180 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

Sept. 25, 2008 -- Obama & McCain Neck and Neck in Granite State: Suffolk University/7News Poll Shows NH Voters Blame GOP for Wall Street Meltdown

BOSTON – Barack Obama continues to be competitive in states that tend to vote Republican, according to a new Suffolk University/7News poll released today. Obama (46 percent) leads John McCain (45 percent) in a tight race.

“Barack Obama continues to show strength in states that historically vote Republican for president,” said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. “He appears to be benefiting from the Wall Street meltdown."

Meanwhile, in the race for New Hampshire governor, Democrat John Lynch was way out in front of Republican Joe Kenney, 61 percent to 16 percent. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen narrowly led Republican Sen. John Sununu, 41 percent to 40 percent, with Libertarian Ken Blevens securing 3 percent, 13 percent undecided and 4 percent refusing to answer.

New Hampshire has voted Republican in eight of the last 12 presidential elections, dating back to 1960.

The recent turmoil in the financial markets has not helped the Republican Party. When likely voters were asked which political party, if any, deserved blame for the roiling economy, 36 percent blamed the Republicans; 14 percent blamed the Democrats; 34 percent said neither; and 15 percent were undecided.

When asked to consider media treatment of Sarah Palin, more likely New Hampshire voters said they believed the Republican vice presidential nominee is being treated harshly (37 percent) than fairly (29 percent). However, in a separate question, a majority (51 percent) said she was not qualified to step in as president, while 43 percent said she was qualified.

“You have a unique mix of empathy and doubt regarding Sarah Palin,” said Paleologos. “Most voters agree with the implication that she is not qualified to step in as president, yet they don’t condone the tone of news reporting.”

Respondents said they trust McCain over Obama, 45 percent to 43 percent. But when respondents were asked who they thought would be the next president, Obama led 47 percent to 37 percent.

Granite state voters said they believed, by a 65 percent-to-22 percent margin that New Hampshire will retain its first-in-the-nation Presidential Primary status in the year 2012.

The New Hampshire bellwether towns of Epping and Tamworth showed Obama (44 percent) leading McCain (38 percent). Green Party nominee Cynthia McKinney registered 2 percent, with 12 percent undecided and 4 percent refusing to respond.

The Suffolk University/7News poll was conducted Sunday, Sept. 21, 2008, through Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 600 is +/- 4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the New Hampshire statewide survey were likely voters. There were 221 respondents from the bellwethers of Epping and Tamworth, NH, identified separately from the statewide poll. Marginals will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- at 6:30 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 25, 2008. There will be 216 pages of cross-tabulation data posted on Friday, Sept. 26, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

Sept. 22, 2008 -- Dead Heat in Silver State Showdown: Suffolk University Poll Shows Nevada Voters Blaming GOP for Wall Street Meltdown

BOSTON – As the two major presidential candidates prepare to debate Friday night, John McCain (45.8 percent) and Barack Obama (45.3 percent) are in a virtual dead heat, with McCain leading by the slightest of margins among likely voters in the state of Nevada, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.

“What happens in Vegas may not stay in Vegas, because if Barack Obama tips the historically Republican Silver State his way, it may be indicative of a Democratic run from coast to coast among the battleground states,” said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston.

Nevada has voted Republican in eight of the last 10 presidential elections, dating back to 1968.

The recent Wall Street turmoil has not helped matters for the Republican Party. When likely voters were asked which political party -- if any -- deserved blame for the roiling economy, 41 percent blamed the Republicans; 16 percent blamed Democrats; 27 percent said neither; and 16 percent were undecided.

“Up to now, John McCain has marketed himself as a maverick reformer. But he may well have to reinvent himself as a regulator if he wants to avoid the wrath of Nevada voters, who lay most of the blame for the mess in the financial markets on the Republican Party’s failure to play watchdog to Wall Street’s high rollers,” said Paleologos.

Respondents said they trust Obama more than McCain, 46 percent to 45 percent. This contrasts sharply to the 49 percent - 41 percent trust advantage that McCain enjoyed in a Suffolk University Ohio poll a week ago.

Obama showed other strengths in the poll. More respondents believe Obama (40 percent) understands and cares about their problems. McCain (23 percent) and Sarah Palin (18 percent) trailed, with Joe Biden receiving only 6 percent.

A small but significant number of voters said they support third-party candidates, with Libertarian Bob Barr the choice of 1 percent of voters polled and independent Ralph Nader, 2 percent.

The top issues on the minds of Nevada presidential voters were economy/jobs (47 percent), Iraq War (11 percent), terrorism (9 percent), moral values (9 percent), health care (8 percent), and taxes (6 percent).

The Nevada bellwether of Washoe County showed Obama (42 percent) leading McCain (38 percent), with Nader and Barr each receiving 1 percent and 15 percent undecided.

In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries, and, when in agreement with the statewide Suffolk polls of the respective states, were 100 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted Wednesday September 17, 2008, through Sunday, September 21, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 600 is +/- 4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the Nevada statewide survey were likely voters. There were 300 respondents bellwether of Washoe County, Nev., identified separately from the statewide poll. Marginals will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on Monday, Sept. 22, 2008. There will be 198 pages of cross-tabulation data posted on Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

Sept. 15, 2008 -- Trust Driving 4 Percent McCain Lead in Buckeye State: Suffolk University Poll Shows Ohioans Identify with Palin

BOSTON – With just 51 days remaining in the 2008 Presidential campaign, the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin holds a 4-point lead in the key state of Ohio, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University. McCain-Palin led the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama-Joe Biden 46 percent to 42 percent.

More respondents identify with Sarah Palin than with the other candidates. Asked which of the four candidates is “most like you,” 31 percent said Palin, followed by Obama (22 percent), McCain (21 percent), and Biden (13 percent). In addition, 38 percent of respondents felt Palin has been treated harshly by the media, while 23 percent said she has been treated fairly. Among the self-described independent voters of Ohio, 42 percent said Palin was treated harshly, while 6 percent indicated fairly.

When asked which candidate they trusted more -- Obama or McCain -- respondents chose McCain over Obama, 49 percent to 41 percent. They also said they believe McCain is more likely to fulfill his pledge to lower taxes than Obama (41 percent to 31 percent).

"McCain is benefiting from Palin identification and empathy as well as a greater sense of Buckeye voter trust," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "However, should the trust firewall in Ohio break down, it could signal the beginning of an electoral blue domino effect there."

Ohio politics is divided sharply by region. In the northeast region McCain dominated Obama, 59 percent to 32 percent, while Obama crushed McCain in Cuyahoga County, 54 percent to 28 percent. Obama’s slight lead in the Cincinnati/Dayton region was more than offset by the McCain lead in the Columbus/southeast region. The two candidates were virtually tied in the Toledo/northwest region of the state.

Obama showed other strengths in the poll. More respondents believe Obama (40 percent) understands and cares about their problems. McCain and Palin (22 percent each) trailed, with Biden receiving 4 percent. And when asked which of the two presidential candidates has the best plan to bring jobs to Ohio, Obama led McCain 40 percent to 29 percent, with 19 percent undecided and 11 percent saying “neither.”

The top issues on the minds of Ohio voters were economy/jobs (38 percent), Iraq War (14 percent), health care (13 percent), moral values (10 percent), taxes (9 percent) and terrorism (8 percent).

There are seven candidates for president on the Ohio ballot, and a small but significant number of votes were siphoned off by third-party candidates. Libertarian Bob Barr, the Green Party’s Cynthia McKinney and independent Ralph Nader each polled 1 percent, while 7 percent were undecided.

"In a state this close, every point counts. Neither Obama nor McCain wants third-party candidates -- who may never share the presidential debate stage -- to determine their fate in Ohio by virtue of their names listed on the ballot," said Paleologos.

The Ohio bellwether of Perry County showed McCain (42 percent) edging Obama (41 percent), with Nader receiving 2 percent and Barr and McKinney each receiving 1 percent, while 10 percent were undecided, and 3 percent refused a response.

In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries, and, when in agreement with the statewide Suffolk polls, were 100 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted Wednesday Sept. 10, 2008, through Saturday, Sept. 13, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 600 is +/- 4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the Ohio statewide survey were likely voters. There were 300 respondents from the bellwether of Perry County, Ohio, identified separately from the statewide poll. Marginals will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on Monday, Sept. 15, 2008. The 195 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

Aug. 25, 2008 -- Obama Leads McCain by 5 Percent in Colorado: Suffolk University Poll Also Shows Obama Stronger Against McCain Than Clinton

BOSTON - As the Democratic National Convention opens today in Denver, voters in the swing state of Colorado are giving the newly minted ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden a 5 point lead (44-39) over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain of Arizona – suggesting Colorado may be rocky territory for the once dominant GOP, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.

"With Colorado among at least seven battleground states that will swing this Presidential election, an Obama lead here puts enormous pressure on John McCain," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "Should Obama go on to win Colorado, it would almost force McCain to run the table with the remaining battleground states or lose the election."

Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr and Independent Ralph Nader each polled 2 percent, while 12 percent of voters surveyed were undecided. There are 15 candidates for president listed on the Colorado ballot.

Most Democratic respondents gave Obama high marks in the expectations game. Some 78 percent of Democratic respondents said the Obama campaign had met or exceeded expectations while just 16 percent said the campaign had not met expectations. In addition, only 19 percent of likely Democratic voters thought that Obama, by picking a male running mate, would have a problem with women voters. By contrast, 70 percent said that it would not be a problem.

Exactly 71 percent of Democratic respondents were happy with Joe Biden as the VP pick while 11 percent wanted someone else. (The Biden questions were only asked of respondents in two of the four field days).

When all voters were asked who would be the stronger candidate against John McCain - Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton - 60 percent indicated Obama; 28 percent said Clinton; and 10 percent were undecided.

“The notion and significance of Democrats irreparably disaffected by the tough primary fight between Obama and New York Senator Hillary Clinton seems to be more of an obsession with the Beltway chattering classes than with the electorate,” Paleologos said.

Obama widely won the perception game, as well. When asked who would be the next president, regardless of their personal preference, 52 percent of voters polled said Barack Obama, 28 percent said John McCain, and 19 percent were undecided.

The Obama 5 percent lead over McCain included an 8 percent lead in the initial ballot test and, when undecided respondents were asked who they were leaning toward, McCain closed the gap among "leaners" to 5 percent.

In the fight for the U.S. Senate seat this November, Democrat Mark Udall (39 percent) led Republican Bob Schaffer (31 percent), American Constitution Party Douglas "Dayhorse" Campbell (4 percent), and Green Party Robert Kinsey (2 percent). There were 22 percent undecided for U.S. Senate.

The bellwether of Alamosa County showed Obama (40 percent) leading McCain (36 percent) with Barr and Nader each receiving 1 percent while 16 percent were undecided and 6 percent refused. In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries, and, when coupled with the sister statewide Suffolk polls of the respective states, were 100 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted Thursday, August 21, 2008, through Sunday, August 24, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 450 is +/- 4.6 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the Colorado statewide survey were likely voters from all parties in Colorado. Separate from the statewide poll there were 300 respondents from Alamosa County, Colo. Marginals and 186 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site on Monday, Aug. 25, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

Aug. 13, 2008 -- Voters Say Yes to Decriminalizing Marijuana: 7NEWS/Suffolk University Poll Also Shows Romney Hurts McCain in Mass.

BOSTON – Of the three questions on the Massachusetts ballot this November, only one question -- #2 the decriminalization of marijuana -- appears all but certain to pass, according to a poll analysis released today by 7NEWS/Suffolk University. Seventy-two percent favored the proposed law, which would replace the criminal penalties for possession of up to one ounce of marijuana to a civil penalty of forfeiture of the marijuana and a fine of $100. Twenty-two percent opposed the proposed law.

"The public may be signaling that pursuing small-time marijuana users is a waste of taxpayer resources," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University. "This issue suggests that there is a Libertarian streak in the thinking of Massachusetts voters."

Question #1, which would reduce and ultimately eliminate the state income tax, was opposed 50 percent to 36 percent, with 15 percent undecided.

"Voters considering the no-tax scenario seem to be aware of their New Hampshire neighbors’ contending with high property taxes to fund programs," said Paleologos. "They appear reluctant to eliminate the income tax and risk paying more with some other tax."

Question #3, which would, beginning in 2010, prohibit any type of dog racing in Massachusetts that entailed wagering on the speed or ability of the dog, won support from 50 percent, while 37 percent opposed, and 13 percent were undecided.

On the national front, if John McCain were to select former Gov. Mitt Romney as his running mate, it could be the kiss of death for McCain in Massachusetts. When asked if voters would be more or less likely to vote for the Republican ticket if Romney were the vice presidential candidate, 33 percent said more likely, while 41 percent said less likely, and 24 percent indicated no difference. Romney’s presence on the ticket moved voters positively in Western Massachusetts, while voters in every other region of the state said they would be less likely to vote for McCain.

The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll was conducted Thursday, July 31, 2008, through Sunday, August 3, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 400 is +/- 4.9 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were registered voters form all parties in Massachusetts. Marginals and cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2008. The complete set of marginals and the 328-page cross-tabulation report will be available at noon Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

Aug. 6, 2008 -- Suffolk University Names Two to Leadership Positions: Barry Brown Becomes Provost; Janice Griffith Is VP of Academic Affairs

BOSTON – Longtime Law School faculty member Barry Brown has been named provost of Suffolk University, and Janice C. Griffith, former dean of Georgia State University College of Law, has been selected as vice president for Academic Affairs.

The additions to the leadership team were announced by Suffolk University President David J. Sargent and will take effect immediately.

“We are very excited that these two distinguished educators will be contributing their unique talents to the University’s academic environment during this time of programmatic growth both here at our Boston campus and abroad,” said Sargent.

“Barry Brown has been a superb teacher and has created exceptional programming as director of the Law School’s concentration in health and biomedical law,” he said. “And Dean Griffith, in emphasizing contributions to public policy as she led Georgia State University College of Law, has shown an intrinsic understanding of the Suffolk University spirit of service.”

Brown joined Suffolk University Law School in 1976 and has taught Property, Land Transfer and Finance, Professional Responsibility, and Biomedical Law and Public Policy.

He began his legal career with Goulston and Storrs, Boston, then served as first assistant bar counsel and counsel to the Clients’ Security Board and as prosecutor for the Massachusetts Board of Bar Overseers in a number of important cases, including the reinstatement of Alger Hiss.

He is widely published and wrote one of the first legal works on condominium law in the nation and one of the first articles concerning property interests in genetic engineering, published by the Stanford Journal of Law and Public Policy. He also founded and is the faculty adviser to Journal of Health and Biomedical Law.

Brown holds an A.B from Harvard College, an Ed.M. from Harvard School of Education and a J.D. from Harvard Law School.

“Suffolk University has been my academic home for many years, and I am proud to have the opportunity to work more closely with President Sargent and my colleagues in the College of Arts and Sciences, Sawyer Business School and Law School. Together we will join the many currents of the University’s three academic units for the benefit of our students,” said Brown. “We have the hope of creating true educational and economic opportunities for our graduates and preparing them for an increasingly complex and internationalized world.”

Griffith’s legal expertise is focused on state and local government law, regionalism and metropolitan growth issues. She became interested in higher education administration during a year as an American Council on Education fellow at Ohio State University.

As dean at Georgia State University College of Law, she oversaw the development of partnerships with other institutions and the creation of two interdisciplinary centers, one for the Comparative Study of Metropolitan Growth and the other for Health Law community partnerships. She also established three new joint degree programs focused on connecting legal studies with Philosophy, Health Administration, and City and Regional Planning.

Griffith holds a B.A. from Colby College and a J.D. from the University of Chicago Law School.

“Suffolk’s mission of creating opportunities for students and access to excellence resonates with me,” said Griffith. “I firmly believe in the university’s focus on quality teaching and strong faculty/student interactions. Nothing is more important than teaching students the communication, analytical and interpersonal skills they will need to become effective leaders in our 21st century global society.”

Aug. 6, 2008 -- 7NEWS/Suffolk University Poll: Mass. Voters Support Governor on Issues: Extending Same-Sex Marriage, Luring Moviemakers & Promoting Casino Gambling

BOSTON – Massachusetts voters support Gov. Deval Patrick on issues such as casino gambling, encouraging in-state movie productions and extending same-sex marriage rights, and they will vote for Barack Obama and John Kerry, according to a poll released today by 7NEWS/Suffolk University.

Fifty-nine percent of those polled supported casino gambling, which Patrick proposed but the Legislature rejected. Twenty-nine percent of the registered voters polled opposed. This compares to the August 2006 7NEWS/Suffolk University survey, which found that 51 percent supported casino gambling and 42 percent opposed.

Sixty-three percent of those polled said that the new Massachusetts tax credit for filmmakers is a good idea because it creates jobs and brings new money to Massachusetts. Twenty-two percent said that the tax credit is bad policy because it costs the state too much money.

And, in the wake of Massachusetts’ lifting a restriction on marriages of same-sex couples from out of state, 59 percent said those couples should be allowed to legally marry in Massachusetts even if their home state prohibits gay marriage, while 37 percent said that gay couples should not be allowed to marry in Massachusetts if their home states do not allow it.

"It looks like two thumbs up for marriage and movies," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "However, the third act of casinos has yet to be played out."
However, the voters hold a grim view of economic issues. Forty-six percent expect the economy to get worse next year, while 38 percent said it will improve. Separately, 35 percent of respondents said Massachusetts is going in the right direction, while 49 percent said it is on the wrong track.

A majority (62 percent-36 percent) of voters said that they have driven fewer miles per week over the summer to adjust for the increase in the price of gas. This compares to the August 2006 survey, when the price of gas was $3 per gallon, when 42 percent said they were curtailing miles driven and 55 percent said they were not.

Worries about airport security and terrorism are declining. Voters said that Logan was a safe and secure airport by a 75 percent-15 percent margin, compared to 59 percent-32 percent in August 2006. They said they believe there will be no terrorist attack on U.S. soil in the next year by a 62 percent-22 percent margin. These numbers show a reversal from 2006, when 66 percent said there would be an attack, and 23 percent said there would be no attack.
Barack Obama led John McCain 47 percent to 38 percent, while Green party candidate Cynthia McKinney and Libertarian Bob Barr garnered 1 percent each. Thirteen percent were undecided. U.S. Sen. John Kerry, who faces opponents in both the Democratic Primary and General Election, led Democrat Ed O’Reilly 64 percent to 20 percent in the Primary and Republican Jeffrey Beatty 51 percent to 29 percent in a head-to-head race.

The most popular statewide figures in Massachusetts are U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, 62 percent favorable-29 percent unfavorable; Gov. Patrick, 51 percent favorable-36 percent unfavorable; and Boston Mayor Thomas M. Menino, 49 percent favorable-18 percent unfavorable.

Finally, 72 percent of respondents said the Red Sox did the right thing by trading left-fielder Manny Ramirez. Only 15 percent opposed the front office decision, while 14 percent were undecided.

The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll was conducted Thursday, July 31, 2008, through Sunday, August 3, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 400 is +/- 4.90 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were registered voters in Massachusetts. Marginals and 186 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on August 6, 2008. Additional questions are embargoed for broadcast on Aug. 13, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

Aug. 4, 2008 -- Obama Lead Eroding in Massachusetts: 7NEWS/Suffolk University Poll Shows Obama ahead by 9 Percent

BOSTON – Democrat Barack Obama (47 percent) leads Republican John McCain (38 percent) by 9 percent among Massachusetts voters, according to a poll released today by 7NEWS/Suffolk University. Green Party nominee Cynthia McKinney and Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr each polled 1 percent, while 13 percent of voters surveyed were undecided.

The poll sharply contrasts with a June 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll, which showed Obama with a 23-point lead, 53 percent to 30 percent.

"Barack Obama’s campaign has hit a soft patch this summer," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "With November just three months off, it still appears an Obama outcome in Massachusetts is not in question, but the margin certainly is."

The biggest McCain gains came among Western Massachusetts voters, men, middle-aged voters and independents, as follows:

Category	June	August	Change
W. Mass.	Obama by 20	McCain by 13	Obama -33
Men	Obama by 22	McCain by 6	Obama -28
Ages 46-55	Obama by 25	Obama by 2	Obama -23
Independents	Obama by 15	Obama by 1	Obama -14

"These were the four demographics that shifted the most. Obama held every other demographic category quite competitively."

Obama continues to win the perception game by a wide margin. When asked who would be the next president, regardless of their personal preference, 54 percent of voters polled said Obama, 30 percent said McCain, and 17 percent were undecided, almost exactly mirroring the June survey.

Voters disagreed with the suggestion that Obama is arrogant and was premature in taking a trip overseas to Afghanistan and the Middle East. While 32 percent said that the recent trip was premature and showed arrogance, 62 percent said the trip was necessary for Obama to learn about problems in other countries and to familiarize himself with foreign leaders. Even among the four shifting demographics (Western Massachusetts voters, men, ages 46-55 years and independents), Obama overwhelmingly carried the day in each demographic on this question.

The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll was conducted Thursday, July 31, 2008, through Sunday, August 3, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 400 is +/- 4.90 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were registered voters form all parties in Massachusetts. Marginals and cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2008. Selected questions have been embargoed for a 7NEWS broadcast airing on Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2008. The complete set of marginals and the 328-page cross-tabulation report will be available on Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

July 31, 2008 -- Ford Hall Forum in New Partnership with Suffolk University: Fall Lecture Series Kicks Off with Wikipedia Founder Jimmy Wales

BOSTON – Ford Hall Forum celebrates its centennial this year, returning to its roots on Beacon Hill in a new partnership with Suffolk University.

The fall season will commence in September with “Free Speech, Free Minds, Free Markets: Competition and Collaboration,” a presentation by Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales and journalist Christopher Lydon, who will discuss where “Web 2.0” will take us next.

The nation’s oldest free public lecture series began in 1908 as a series of Sunday-evening public meetings at Ford Hall on Beacon Hill. The Forum is now housed in Suffolk University’s Fenton Building – a block away from where prominent Boston businessman George W. Coleman hosted the initial lectures 100 years ago – and many of this year’s lectures will be held at the University’s C. Walsh Theatre.

Coleman’s unique format, which provided equal time for speakers’ remarks and questions from the audience, gave any interested citizen the opportunity to debate issues with some of the most influential figures of the day. According to Coleman’s vision, the lecture series would enable the “full, free and open discussion of all vital questions affecting human welfare.”

Since Coleman’s time, the Forum has gone on to host discussions with the most intriguing figures in our nation’s modern history, including Louis Brandeis, W.E.B. DuBois, Al Gore, Maya Angelou, Garrison Keillor, Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., Henry Kissinger, Ayn Rand, Eleanor Roosevelt, Cokie Roberts and Malcolm X.

While the original hall no longer exists, the Forum’s public conversations have continued throughout the Greater Boston area with the generous support of foundations, corporations, academic institutions and individuals.

Suffolk University is providing the Forum with the opportunity to “come home” not only to Beacon Hill but also into an academic environment that shares a similar spirit and history of public education and civic dialogue.

“Both organizations were born in the progressive era, and both have a commitment to free speech and interactive learning,” said Dean Kenneth S. Greenberg of the University’s College of Arts and Sciences. “We are eager for our community to engage in the excitement of live public discourse that is the heart of the Ford Hall Forum events.”

The Ford Hall Forum has an intriguing program series scheduled for fall 2008. All lectures take place from 6:30-8 p.m.

JIMMY WALES with CHRISTOPHER LYDON
“Free Speech, Free Minds, Free Markets: Competition and Collaboration”
Thursday, Sept. 11, 2008, C. Walsh Theater, Suffolk University
THOMAS S. BLANTON with ALASDAIR ROBERTS
“Secrecy in the United States: Priorities for the Next President”
Thursday, Sept. 18, 2008, C. Walsh Theater, Suffolk University
In collaboration with the Rappaport Center for Law and Public Service
LAURENCE H. TRIBE
“The Invisible Constitution”
Thursday, Sept. 25, 2008
Moot Court Room, Suffolk University Law School
Book signing will follow lecture and discussion.
Receive a free copy of the U.S. Constitution at the door.
JON KELLER with JEFF JACOBY
“The Bluest State: How Democrats Created the Massachusetts Blueprint for American Political Disaster”
Sunday, Oct. 5, 2008
C. Walsh Theater at Suffolk University
Book signing will follow lecture and discussion.
DOUGLAS J. FEITH
“War and Decision: Inside the Pentagon at the Dawn of the War on Terrorism”
Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008
Old South Meeting House
Book signing will follow lecture and discussion.
This program is presented in collaboration with the Old South Meeting House as part of the Partners in Public Dialogue Series.
JAMES CARROLL
“Constantine’s Sword”
Thursday, Oct. 30. 2008
C. Walsh Theater, Suffolk University
The Frederic G. Corneel Memorial Lecture
GARY HIRSHBERG with NANCY F. KOEHN
“Stirring it Up: How to Make Money and Save the World”
Thursday, Nov. 6, 2008
C. Walsh Theater, Suffolk University
Book signing will follow lecture and discussion.
ELECTION 2008: REVIEW AND FORECAST
Panel discussion. Speakers to be determined.
Thursday, Nov. 13, 2008
Old South Meeting House
This program is presented in collaboration with the Old South Meeting House as part of the Partners in Public Dialogue Series.

For more information on the history of the Ford Hall Forum, visit www.fordhallforum.org, or contact Alex Minier at 617-557-2007.

July 30, 2008 -- Supreme Judicial Court Justice Greaney to Join Suffolk Law School

Will serve as Director of Macaronis Institute for Trial and Appellate Advocacy

BOSTON -- Justice John M. Greaney of the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court will join the Suffolk University Law School faculty and serve as director of the Macaronis Institute for Trial and Appellate Advocacy.

Greaney’s appointment, effective Dec. 1, 2008, was announced by Suffolk University President David J. Sargent and Board Chairman Nicholas Macaronis, a distinguished alumnus and prominent Lowell attorney for whom the institute is named.

“Justice Greaney brings a wealth of experience at every level of the judiciary, for which he has won the admiration of people both within and outside of the legal profession,” said President Sargent. “Our students will benefit from his tutelage, and he brings inspired ideas to the Macaronis Institute.”

The Macaronis Institute, founded in 1999, offers highly specialized programs to practicing attorneys and law students.

“I am honored by my appointment to Suffolk University Law School, which has a tradition of excellence that I will endeavor to serve and enhance,” said Greaney. “The Macaronis Institute, through its civil litigation concentration, trains law students to provide essential services in areas of practice that are vital to the maintenance of our system of justice. In addition to teaching, I will work assiduously to add to the wide range of services, courses and programs that the Institute conducts, so that it will continue its status as a respected center for trial and appellate advocacy and related legal studies.’’

As a justice on the highest appellate court in Massachusetts, Greaney authored numerous significant opinions on issues ranging from complex corporate litigation in the Demoulas case to separation of powers and inherent judicial authority in the First Justice case and same-sex marriage in the Goodridge case.

Greaney served in the military and engaged in private practice before joining the judiciary in 1974, as the presiding judge of the Hampden County Housing Court. He later served as a justice the Massachusetts Superior Court and the Massachusetts Appeals Court. He was chief justice of the Massachusetts Appeals Court before his appointment to the Supreme Judicial Court.

Greaney has taught law at Western New England College Law School and Westfield State College; lectured and written extensively for continuing legal and judicial education programs; edited books on the law of Deceptive and Unfair Practices and Appellate Practice and Procedure; and co-authored books on Civil Jury Instructions and Summary Judgment.

Greaney received his B.A. with honors in 1960 from the College of the Holy Cross, and his J.D. in 1963 from New York University School of Law, where he was a Root-Tilden scholar and chairperson of the Annual Survey of American Law. He has received the Robert B. MacKay and Public Service Awards from N.Y.U. School of Law, the Haskell Cohn Distinguished Judicial Service Award from the Boston Bar Association, Western New England College’s Presidential Medallion, and the Massachusetts Judges Conference President’s Award for Judicial Excellence.

“Justice Greaney brings inspired ideas, broad experience and a special brand of wisdom to Suffolk Law School,” said Macaronis. “We look forward to seeing this highly regarded jurist steer the Macaronis Institute as it continues to offer valuable learning experiences to attorneys and students.”

July 30, 2008 -- "Stories in Stone: The Historic Burying Grounds of Boston" at Suffolk University’s Adams Gallery

BOSTON – Preachers, patriots and artists lie alongside pirates and slaves in Boston’s early graveyards, and their lives provide inspiration for the exhibit Stories in Stone: The Historic Burying Grounds of Boston, at the Adams Gallery at Suffolk University from Aug. 1 through Oct. 20, 2008.

Stories in Stone draws on artworks, archival records and photography to paint a picture of life and culture in Boston dating from the colony’s first settlement to today.

Bostonians of means had stones erected in memory of family members, and the images and epitaphs on these early grave markers tell individual stories while reflecting cultural changes from the 17th through 19th centuries.

The legend of Paul Revere is illustrated with the patriot’s portrait, his engraving of the “Boston Massacre,” and an excerpt from Longfellow’s poem celebrating the Revere’s “Midnight Ride.” Revere is buried in the Granary Burying Ground, as are the victims of the Boston Massacre.

The exhibit also looks at the stonemason’s art, the meaning of gravestone iconography and preservation efforts.

The stories continue today, with photographs showing neighbors who have adopted a pair of historic graveyards in South Boston. They plant flowers and feed birds in a spot seen as an oasis in their densely populated neighborhood.

The exhibit is presented by Suffolk University in partnership with the Boston Parks and Recreation Department’s Historic Burying Grounds Initiative.

Stories in Stone: The Historic Burying Grounds of Boston
Adams Gallery
David J. Sargent Hall
Suffolk University
120 Tremont St., Boston
Gallery hours: 9 a.m. -.7 p.m. daily
www.suffolk.edu/adamsgallery

Images available

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Suffolk University’s Adams Gallery presents exhibits on themes related to Boston history. Its location on the Freedom Trail, in the historic heart of Boston, makes it a natural site for exhibits of original materials or reproductions of importance in the chronology of Boston and New England.

June 16, 2008 -- Candidate Kerry Shows Potential Weakness: 7NEWS/Suffolk University Poll Indicates Voters Would Welcome New Blood

BOSTON – If John Kerry were to face a strong candidate in running for re-election this fall, he might be vulnerable, as 51 percent of general election voters polled by 7NEWS/Suffolk University said it’s time to give someone else a chance, while 38 percent said the senator deserves to be reelected. Nine percent were undecided, and 2 percent refused a response in the poll released today.

"This number signals to us a potential weakness; if the right candidate came along, John Kerry would be vulnerable," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "The hook is that no credible candidate has challenged Kerry to date, and it all comes down to the choices on the actual ballot."

Still, Kerry’s weakness could be seen in several key areas: 56 percent of independents -- the largest voting block by far in Massachusetts -- said it was time to give someone else a chance. This sentiment was shared by 55 percent of voters over age 55; 60 percent of those living in Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire, Berkshire and Franklin counties; and 61 percent of voters in Bristol, Plymouth, Norfolk, Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket counties.

An April 2007 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll showed that only 37 percent of Massachusetts likely voters believed Kerry deserved to be reelected, while 56 percent said it was time to give someone else a chance.

Governor Deval Patrick didn’t fare much better: 39 percent of respondents said that Patrick deserved a second term, while 41 percent said it was time to give someone else a chance, and 20 percent were undecided. Patrick was weaker among men, independents, and the Southeastern Massachusetts/Cape Cod region.

Respondents also projected -- 47 percent to 20 percent) -- that if Democratic nominee Barack Obama wins in November, Patrick will leave Massachusetts to join his administration in Washington D.C.

"It appears that voters believe Governor Patrick has other irons in the fire," said Paleologos. "Certainly, if the opportunity presents itself -- and respondents feel that it is quite possible -- Patrick could make another career move come November."

When respondents were asked, despite their personal preferences, who would be the next president, 55 percent said Barack Obama, 29 percent said John McCain, and 14 percent were undecided.

The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll was conducted Sunday, June 8, 2008, through Tuesday, June 10, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 500 is +/- 4.40 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were General Election voters in Massachusetts. Marginals and 130 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450 html -- on June 16, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

June 16, 2008 -- Initiative for Diversity in Civic Leadership to Honor Second Graduating Class

Fitchburg Mayor Lisa Wong to Participate in Extraordinary Event

BOSTON - On Monday, June 16, 2008 from 5:30-8 p.m. in the Great Hall at the Massachusetts State House twenty-six people of color from the Greater Boston area will comprise the second graduating class of the Initiative for Diversity in Civic Leadership (IDCL).

Fitchburg Mayor Lisa Wong will be the keynote speaker. Invited guests include elected officials, government appointees, funding representatives, distinguished educators, and business and community leaders.

The Initiative for Diversity in Civic Leadership, managed by a partnership between ¿Oíste?, Suffolk Univiersity and MassVOTE, is a three-year effort to provide education and training opportunities to help individuals from diverse political backgrounds to successfully run for elected office, manage and run political campaigns, and serve in all levels of government. ¿Oíste? is in charge of the overall administration of the program and curriculum development, while MassVOTE is responsible for the development and implementation of the recruitment and admission process. Suffolk University provides the classroom space, administrative and academic support (including lectures from a number of professors) and assistance with curriculum development of the program.

“With this graduating class, IDCL has now trained 54 people of color ready to take on elected and appointed government positions throughout Greater Boston,” said Giovanna Negretti, Executive Director of ¿Oíste?, the Latino Civic Education Initiative, and the lead managing partner of the IDCL. “Given the changes in demographics in communities throughout the state and the country, government and political campaigns must evolve and grow to best reflect the people they serve. Within the next couple of years, these faces will be the next generation of public servants in places such as Boston, Chelsea, Cambridge, Somerville, Brockton, Brookline and Framingham.”

“These Initiative for Diversity in Civic Leadership graduates are poised to make a substantial impact on the political landscape of Greater Boston,” said Assistant Professor Government Teri Fair, the Suffolk University coordinator for the initiative. “As they take their places in elective and appointed offices, the region’s political leadership will reflect a more representative democracy. Congratulations, on behalf of Suffolk University, to all of the 2008 graduates.”

Funding for the IDCL program is provided by a funding collaborative which includes Access Strategies Fund, The Boston Foundation, The Herman and Frieda L. Miller Foundation, The Hyams Foundation, The Jobin-Leeds Partnership for Democracy and Education, LLC, and The New Community Fund.

“We are so proud to be part of this Initiative in Boston, “said Robert Lewis, Jr., vice president for Program for the Boston Foundation and closing speaker at the ceremony. “This second graduating class represents a new phase in politics in Greater Boston. As graduates go onto to run for office, hold appointed positions, and work on campaigns, we will experience a new reality – a government truly representative of the people, of all people. On behalf of the funding collaborative, we extend heartfelt congratulations to all the graduates and look forward to their campaigns in ’09 and beyond.”

¿Oíste? was founded in 1999 by several Latino activists from across the state who were concerned about the lack of Latino political representation and civic participation in Massachusetts. Its mission is to promote the principles and practice of democracy and to advance the political, social and economic standing of Latinos and Latinas in the state.

The mission of MassVOTE is to support the non-profit community in urban neighborhoods to increase voter participation in underrepresented communities; enhance the capacity of non-profits and neighborhood groups to impact local and state public policy through increased voter participation and electoral reform campaigns; address institutional barriers underlying non-voting from outdated poll procedures and discriminatory voting methods to the lack of basic civic education about elections and government; and create a sustainable urban voter engagement model for replication in other cities in Massachusetts.

June 11, 2008 -- Obama Up in Massachusetts Despite Clinton Defections: Poll Shows Obama Voters Want Hillary in Cabinet

Democrat Barack Obama (53 percent) leads Republican John McCain (30 percent) by a comfortable margin among Massachusetts voters, according to a poll released today by 7NEWS/Suffolk University. Just 3 percent selected Ralph Nader and 13 percent were undecided. Despite the Obama lead, 26 percent of Clinton supporters were undecided between a match-up of Democrat Obama and Republican McCain, while an additional 20 percent of Clinton supporters said they will vote for McCain come November.

"The Bay State will be blue in November, despite this snapshot in time showing Hillary Clinton supporters still seeing red three days after her concession, and singing the blues," said David Paleologos, Director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston (SUPRC). "While November is still five months off, with only 54 percent of Massachusetts’ Clinton voters saying they’ll vote for Obama, it portends unity problems in swing states where the margin is much closer."

The low 54 percent unity number jumps to 80 percent when Clinton voters were asked whether they would vote for Obama if Hillary Clinton were his running mate. A clear majority (56 percent) of all Democratic voters said that they believe Hillary Clinton wants to be Vice President while 31 percent said she did not.

A majority of Obama voters (54 percent) feel their candidate is stronger without Hillary Clinton on the ticket. Among Obama voters, 55 percent did not think Obama should pick Clinton, while 31 percent did. However, 87 percent of Obama voters would still vote for Obama if Clinton were on the ticket, while 10 percent said they would not.

A strong consensus of Obama voters (69 percent) said that he should offer Clinton a position in his cabinet while just 24 percent rejected the idea.

Republican voters didn’t think John McCain would pick Mitt Romney as his running mate. Just 38 percent indicated that McCain would pick the former Governor, while 44 percent said that he would not, and 17 percent were undecided.

Added Paleologos, "For John McCain, the perceived Achilles heel - that he’s too old to be President - seems to hold little weight with Massachusetts voters. Exactly 68 percent say that he is not too old while just 28 percent said that he is. Despite the good news for Barack Obama, 52 percent of all Massachusetts respondents said that race would be an issue in the November election while 44 percent said that it would not and 4 percent were undecided."

Asked who would be the next president, 55 percent said Barack Obama, 29 percent said John McCain, and 14 percent were undecided.

The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll was conducted Sunday, June 8, 2008 through Tuesday, June 10, 2008. The margin of error on the study of 500 is +/- 4.40 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were General Election voters in Massachusetts. Marginals and 130 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center web site on June 12, 2008. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

June 10, 2008 -- Beacon Hill Civic Association, Suffolk University Reach Agreement on Institutional Master Plan

The Board of Directors of the Beacon Hill Civic Association (BHCA) last night approved an agreement negotiated with Suffolk University regarding the school’s Institutional Master Plan (IMP), which is being reviewed by the Boston Redevelopment Authority.

The agreement, which addresses neighborhood concerns about the school’s transformation from a commuter school to an urban residential university, extends the current non-expansion zone on Beacon Hill and caps undergraduate enrollment at 5,000 over the course of the 10-year master plan.

Under the terms of the pact, the BHCA agreed not to oppose Suffolk’s IMP.

Other key terms of the proposed agreement include:

• Creation of a new “Non-Expansion Zone” placing nearly all of Beacon Hill under protected status;

• Classroom seats in the Derne/Temple area will be reduced as new classrooms are developed in other buildings at 20 Somerset Street and other buildings off Beacon Hill;

• The BHCA will not oppose Suffolk’s development of 20 Somerset Street into an arts school, with additional academic uses, as described in Suffolk’s Article 80 IMP proposal;

• The BHCA agrees to support Suffolk’s development of the Modern Theater dormitory project, subject to Article 80 Large Project Review;

• Suffolk agrees to pursue a goal of housing 50 percent of its undergraduates on-campus within 10 years; 60 percent within 15 years and 70 percent within 20 years;

• Suffolk will cease institutional use of the Ridgeway Building on Cambridge Street when a new athletic facility is built. The cafeteria in the Donahue Building on Temple Street will close when a new student center with a cafeteria is developed. A small food kiosk may remain in the Donahue Building;

• Suffolk agrees to make permanent its Office of Neighborhood Response program, including paid Boston Police details;

• Suffolk and BHCA will form a joint ad hoc committee, to meet at least quarterly, to discuss the implementation of the agreement.

• The agreement will be enforceable in court.

“This agreement creates a mechanism that legally protects the residential quality of Beacon Hill and enables the BHCA to constructively engage with Suffolk for years to come,” said BHCA Board Chairman John Achatz. “We are pleased that Suffolk has entered into this agreement, and the board looks forward to a more positive relationship with Suffolk in the future.”

“We are pleased that the Beacon Hill Civic Association board has voted to support this landmark agreement, which will allow for sensitive and responsible development by Suffolk, while protecting the Beacon Hill neighborhood,” said John Nucci, Suffolk University’s vice president for external affairs. “The agreement was designed with the goals of both Suffolk and Beacon Hill in mind, and it bodes well for a peaceful coexistence for decades to come.”

The agreement must be signed and filed with the city by the June 18 deadline for comments on Suffolk’s master plan.

June 4, 2008 -- Suffolk Law School Wins International Award in Recognition of Human Rights Conference

BOSTON – Suffolk University Law School’s Center for Advanced Legal Studies will receive the top public interest award from the international Association for Continuing Legal Education (ACLEA) in recognition of the Center’s 2007 “Centennial Conference on International Human Rights.”

The ACLEA Award for Professional Excellence -- one of 15 annual awards granted to competitors from more than 300 organizations -- recognizes Suffolk Law’s Center for Advanced Legal Studies in the Public Interest category. Suffolk is the first law school to receive the top award in the Public Interest category.

“We are honored that Suffolk Law School’s international human rights conference drew the attention of the ACLEA judges,” said Advanced Legal Studies Director Carole Wagan. “More important, the Law School is proud that we were able to build awareness among lawyers and the public regarding the scope of the problems and the need for legislative action and advocacy.”

The two-day “Centennial Conference on International Human Rights” focused on two distinct but related areas:

“Implementing Human Rights in Massachusetts: Legislative Strategies & Responsibilities” was the first conference in the United States to address the human rights responsibilities of state and municipal officials.
“Hidden Epidemic: Child Sex Trafficking” brought together a panel of national experts who illustrated the nature of the problem, the scope and what can be done. The goal was to educate but also to inspire with success stories.

The conference attracted 75 lawyers, including government attorneys, human rights commission members and legal services lawyers; government officials; human rights advocates; academics; law school and high school students.

It was presented in partnership with Suffolk University’s Center for Women’s Health and Human Rights, National Women Law Student Association and Moakley Institute. Additional supporters were the Massachusetts CEDAW Project, the National Lawyers Guild, Northeastern University Law School’s Program on Human Rights and the Global Economy, the Women’s Bar Association, the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights under the Law and the Massachusetts Bar Association.

ACLEA members are professionals in the fields of continuing legal education, and legal publishing. The organization’s annual awards are highly competitive, and winning projects represent the highest level of achievement for the staff and volunteers involved.

A formal presentation of the award will be made at the ACLEA annual meeting in Vancouver, British Columbia, on Aug. 5, 2008.

May 19, 2008 -- Polls: Clinton Solid in Kentucky; Oregon is Obama’s in Tight Race

Two States Worlds Apart on Obama Popularity

BOSTON – Two states. Two Democratic Primaries on the same night. And the differences in the contests are like night and day, according to a Suffolk University poll.

In Kentucky, Hillary Clinton (51 percent) led Barack Obama (25 percent) by 26 points, followed by John Edwards (6 percent) and "uncommitted" (5 percent), while 11 percent were undecided.

In Oregon, Obama (45 percent) led Clinton (41 percent) by 4 points, with 8 percent undecided and 6 percent refusing a response.

“With the nominating contest winding down, it’s unusual – to say the least – to have two states’ polls literally poles apart,” said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Boston’s Suffolk University. “And I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a disparity in a presidential candidate’s popularity from state to state.”

The most dramatic difference was in Obama’s personal popularity. In Kentucky, Obama was recording favorability similar to his rating in West Virginia, with a 43 percent favorable rating and a 43 percent unfavorable rating. (In West Virginia, Obama had 44 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable ratings and lost by 41 points to Clinton.) Yet Obama’s popularity soars in Oregon, where 73 percent view him favorably and 15 percent unfavorably.

"Usually when a candidate has a high favorability, it trends high nationally, with limited variations regionally. Here, when you get to states like Kentucky and West Virginia, there’s a kind of political inelasticity or unwillingness to replicate Obama’s popularity elsewhere."

Both Beaver and Bluegrass voters predict that Obama will be the next president. In Kentucky, 41 percent of Democratic voters said Obama would be the next president, followed by Republican John McCain (25 percent), Clinton (13 percent), and 20 percent undecided. In Oregon, 59 percent said Obama, 11 percent indicated Clinton, 9 percent chose McCain, and 20 percent were undecided.

Kentucky voters, asked which candidate was more electable against McCain, chose Clinton (46 percent) over Obama (39 percent). In Oregon, the numbers more than reversed, with 52 percent answering Obama and 28 percent, Clinton.

Kentucky and Oregon expressed differing degrees of loyalty.

Asked what they would do if their first choice for the Democratic nomination lost, 41 percent of Kentucky Democratic voters said they would still vote for the Democratic nominee; 28 percent said they would jump parties and vote for McCain; 4 percent would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader; and 24 percent were undecided.

By contrast, Oregon Democratic loyalty ran very strong. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they would still vote for the Democratic nominee; 19 percent said they would vote for McCain; 5 percent would vote for Nader; and 13 percent were undecided.

The Suffolk University bellwethers of Montgomery County, Kentucky, and Marion County, Oregon, which were sister-tests to the statewide surveys, followed the same trend.

In Montgomery County, Clinton led Obama by 28 points, closely mirroring the statewide Kentucky poll (Clinton - 55 percent to Obama - 17 percent, followed by Kentucky ballot options "uncommitted," 5 percent and Edwards, 3 percent, with 14 percent undecided and 7 percent refused.

In Marion County, Obama led Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent, with 8 percent undecided and 6 percent refused. This confirms the single-digit close race in Oregon recorded by the statewide poll.

"Obama’s early mail-in voting advantage may be the difference in this close race."

Since the bellwether predictor module was incorporated as a sister-test to the Suffolk statewide polling, no actual election result has run counter to the winners of the statewide poll and the bellwether, when both tests have agreed. When the two tests disagree, the bellwether test(s) have oftentimes been more accurate.

Both bellwether counties’ election returns from both parties have been within 5 percent of the actual statewide Primary results in years where an incumbent U.S. president has not been on the ballot.

The Suffolk University polls were conducted May 17 - 18, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide surveys of 600 is +/- 4.00 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide surveys were likely voters in the May 20 respective Democratic Presidential Primaries. Marginals and cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on May 19.

The Suffolk University election predictor bellwether ID sister-tests (300 contacts, Montgomery County and 149 contacts, Marion County) were made May 18. There was an equal probability of contacting and interviewing likely Democratic voters, provided that they identified themselves as very likely or somewhat likely to take a Democratic ballot on Tuesday. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

May 14, 2008 -- Moakley Foundation Announces Scholarships; Honors James Linnehan & Jeanne Hession with Public Service Awards

BOSTON -- The John Joseph Moakley Charitable Foundation Public Service Award will be awarded to attorneys James F. Linnehan and Jeanne M. Hession at the Foundation’s Seventh Annual Scholarship Award Ceremony on Thursday, May 29, 2008 at Suffolk University Law School.

Twenty-eight scholarships will be presented this year to students pursuing higher education at the undergraduate or graduate level and for vocational education. More than $110,000 in scholarships will be awarded.

“The Moakley Foundation is proud to honor James Linnehan and Jeanne Hession with the 2008 Moakley Foundation Public Service Award in recognition of their lifelong commitment to public service, especially their commitment to the Foundation’s mission of continuing the public service legacy of their longtime friend, Joe Moakley,” said Frederick Clark, president of the John Joseph Moakley Charitable Foundation and chairman of the Massachusetts Board of Higher Education.

Hession and Linnehan were classmates of Moakley’s at Suffolk University Law School, where they all were members of the Class of ’56. Hession and Linnehan are life members of the Suffolk University board of trustees, and Moakley served on the board with them for many years.

Guests at the Foundation’s Scholarship Award Ceremony will include Congressman James McGovern; Clark; and Suffolk University President David J. Sargent. The ceremony will take place from 5 to 7 p.m. at Suffolk University Law School, which is the home of the John Joseph Moakley Archive and Institute.

The John Joseph Moakley Charitable Foundation awards scholarships on a competitive basis each spring to successful applicants who demonstrate financial need, acceptance to a post -secondary vocational education program or to an institution of higher education for undergraduate or graduate study and a desire to pursue public or charitable service as a vocation or as an avocation.

The John Joseph Moakley Charitable Foundation was established to continue the extraordinary public service legacy of Congressman Moakley, whose career as a public servant spanned nearly 50 years and who had long championed improving educational opportunities for all people. The John Joseph Moakley Charitable Foundation is committed to continuing his work through its scholarship program. To date the Moakley Foundation has awarded more than $1.3 million in scholarships and grants since its creation in 2001.

For more information, visit http://www.moakleyfoundation.com/.

John Joseph Moakley Charitable Foundation
Seventh Annual Scholarship Award Ceremony
5-7 p.m. Thursday, May 29, 2008
Suffolk University Law School
120 Tremont St., Boston

May 13, 2008 -- Study: Real Cost of Massachusetts Medical Malpractice Premiums Has Declined; Suffolk Law Research Raises Questions about Assertions of Financial Crisis

BOSTON -- Reports of skyrocketing medical malpractice premiums in Massachusetts are flawed, according to a Suffolk University Law School study that found Bay State physicians actually saw their inflation-adjusted malpractice premiums drop between 1990 and 2005.

The new study, to be released May 13 in the May/June issue of the journal Health Affairs, raises serious questions about claims that Massachusetts doctors are facing a medical malpractice premium crisis that threatens the viability of medical practice in the Bay State.

Massachusetts has the fourth-highest median malpractice settlement payments in the nation, and therefore should have the fourth-highest premiums. Yet, when adjusted for inflation, Bay State physicians’ malpractice premiums were lower in 2005 than in 1990 in nearly all cases. The study -- which provides the most comprehensive analysis of premiums to date -- clashes with popular perceptions and assumptions underlying legislative proposals to cap damages awards.

Suffolk University Law School researchers Marc Rodwin and colleagues analyzed malpractice premiums from 1975 to 2005 using data from the state-regulated mutual insurer known as Pro-Mutual. In 2005, malpractice premiums were $17,810 for the coverage level and policy type that physicians most frequently purchased, compared with $17,907 in 1990. Despite premium increases since 1995 or 2000 for all physicians, premiums were still lower in 2005 than 1990, when they reached a 30-year peak. Mean premiums increased in only three specialties comprising 4 percent of physicians: obstetrics, neurology and orthopedists performing spinal surgery.

The study furthermore documents growing differences among premiums paid within each practice specialty since 1990. That’s when insurers began to adjust rates for each practice specialty by discounting low-risk physicians and surcharging those with high risks. By 2005, there was a threefold difference in premiums for physicians within OB-GYN, the highest-risk specialty, as a result of rate discounts and surcharges based on an individual physician’s risk factors. As a result, although mean OB-GYN premiums increased significantly since 1990, nearly one-third of physicians in OB-GYN paid lower premiums in 2005 than in 1990.

The authors note that premiums for OB-GYN are higher than for most other physicians because infants injured in birth sometimes require lifelong custodial care, which is very expensive. They therefore recommend that patient safety and quality efforts should focus on OB-GYN and the two other high-risk specialties to reduce injuries. When similar efforts were undertaken in anesthesiology in the 1990s, injuries fell dramatically, and premiums did as well.

The authors also propose alternative means to compensate injuries. For infants injured in birth they recommend a no-fault compensation system such as those used in Virginia and Florida. Alternatively they suggest shifting liability from physicians to hospitals for all injuries that occur in hospitals. Both proposals would reduce the malpractice premiums for high-risk physicians while still compensating patients.

May 13, 2008 -- Suffolk University-NECN Partnership Focuses on Tremont St. TV Studio

BOSTON – Suffolk University and New England Cable News have formed a partnership that will allow NECN to broadcast from the University’s new state-of-the-art television studio at 73 Tremont St.

NECN, which is headquartered in suburban Newton, will use the Suffolk University TV studio in downtown Boston for live reports and for interviews with newsmakers from City Hall, Beacon Hill and the Financial District. NECN will use the studio primarily for guests on its evening, prime-time programs, such as Business Day (6:30 to 7 p.m.), NewsNight with Jim Braude (8-8:30 p.m.) and The News at 9. Suffolk University professors also will provide commentary and analysis.

"We are very excited about this partnership, which will not only give NECN access to a wonderful downtown studio, but also to the expertise of Suffolk professors,’’ said NECN President and General Manager Charles J. Kravetz. "We very much look forward to working together to enrich our coverage of Boston, and to forging a long alliance with a great institution.’’

Mayor Thomas M. Menino is scheduled to sit down May 22 with Jim Braude, host of NECN’s NewsNight program, as NECN’s first guest from the studio.

The high-definition studio opened in February to provide the latest technology to television production and broadcast journalism classes within the University’s Communication and Journalism Department.

“We’re proud to partner with such a venerable news organization,” said Suffolk University President David J. Sargent. “Our partnership with NECN adds a whole new dimension to a studio that is already enabling Suffolk students to receive state-of-the-art experience in television studio production.”

The studio is equipped with three high-definition digital cameras, a full lighting grid and a state-of-the-art control room. It features a ticker tape and multiple video screens visible to pedestrians along Tremont Street.

May 11, 2008 -- Poll Predicts 36-Point Clinton Landslide in W. Virginia

Voters Say Clinton’s Persistence Will Not Hurt the Democratic Party

BOSTON – Although Barack Obama is the likely Democratic nominee, West Virginia Democratic voters are marching to a different drummer, as Hillary Clinton leads Obama by 36 points among likely Democratic voters, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.

Sixty percent of voters polled preferred Clinton to Obama (24 percent). John Edwards, whose name remains on all West Virginia ballots, polled 4 percent, while 2 percent had no preference; 8 percent were undecided; and 2 percent refused a response.

Respondents said Clinton should stay in the primary fight and that she is not hurting the Democratic Party by staying in the race. Sixty-seven percent of likely Democratic voters said Clinton should stay in the race, regardless of what happens on Tuesday, and 24 percent said she should get out. Seventy-two percent said she is not hurting the Democratic Party by running in the remaining primaries, while 20 percent said she is doing the party harm.

Obama’s favorability (44 percent favorable - 41 percent unfavorable) was relatively low, compared to Clinton (70 percent favorable - 21 percent unfavorable).

West Virginia has voted Democratic in eight of the last 12 general elections, dating back to 1960, but these findings could indicate difficulties for Obama in 2008.

"Barack Obama may have to write off West Virginia come November," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "In 2000, Al Gore won seventy-two percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters and lost the state’s general election to George Bush by six percent; in 2004, John Kerry won sixty-nine percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters and lost the state’s general election to George Bush by thirteen percent. If Barack Obama can’t even garner thirty percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters, what does that say about the West Virginia general election?"

West Virginia Democratic voters’ party loyalty also is fragile. Asked what they would do if their first choice for the Democratic nomination lost, 40 percent of respondents said they would still vote for the Democratic nominee; 23 percent said they would jump parties and vote for Republican John McCain; 6 percent would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader; 30 percent were undecided; while 2 percent refused a response.

West Virginia Democratic voters appeared to be in denial about the delegate projections. Asked who would be the next president, regardless of whom they personally supported, 31 percent said Clinton; 27 percent, Obama; 26 percent, McCain; and 11 percent were undecided.

In other Suffolk University findings, 51 percent of those surveyed said that Obama could beat McCain in the general election, while 29 percent said he could not, and 20 percent were undecided.

The Suffolk University bellwether of Mason County, which was a sister-test to the statewide survey, also showed a commanding Clinton lead of 65 percent, with Obama at 16 percent; Edwards, 3 percent; no preference, 2 percent; 10 percent undecided, and 5 percent refused a response. The Mason County, West Virginia, Primary returns have been in the correct order and within 5 percent of the actual statewide Primary results from both parties in years where an incumbent U.S. president has not been on the ballot.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted May 10 and May 11, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 600 is +/- 4.00 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely voters in the May 13 West Virginia Democratic Presidential Primary. Marginals and 110 pages of cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – http://suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on May 12.

The Suffolk University election predictor bellwether ID sister-test (400 contacts) was made May 10. There was an equal probability of contacting and interviewing registered voters of all party affiliations, provided that they identified themselves as likely to take a Democratic ballot on Tuesday. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

May 6, 2008 -- Indiana Bellwether Points to Clinton Win

New Suffolk University Research Analyzes Delaware County Households

BOSTON – The Indiana bellwether area of Delaware County points to Hillary Clinton to win the Indiana Democratic Primary, according to election-eve research conducted by Suffolk University.

In the random-digit-dial selection of likely Democratic households, Clinton led Barack Obama 44 percent-to-37 percent, with 16 percent undecided and 3 percent refusing to respond. This 7-percent margin closely mirrors the 49-percent-to-43-percent-margin statewide Democratic poll released by the Suffolk University Political Research Center on the morning of May 5.

Although bellwethers are a developing science and are not designed to depict actual margins, they have been remarkably accurate in predicting outcomes.

The Center’s 2008 analyses were made using a new election predictor module employed successfully with the Democratic Primaries in New Hampshire, California, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Ohio and Pennsylvania and the GOP Florida Primary. It is based on a number of statistical indices, including statewide polling and bellwether geographic areas.

“We’ll be watching how Delaware County fares in today’s election,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “Historical election trends have put Delaware County in the Indiana spotlight. We’ll know in a matter of hours whether this trend will continue in the 2008 election.”

The last two times a non-incumbent president was on a presidential preference ballot in Delaware County, in 1988 and 2000, the bellwether area mirrored not only the exact order of finish statewide, but was within 4 percent for the top three vote-getters in each major party.

Since the bellwether predictor module was incorporated as a sister-test to the Suffolk statewide polling, no actual election result has run counter to the statewide poll and the bellwether, when both tests have agreed. When the two tests disagree, the bellwether test(s) have oftentimes been more accurate.

On Jan. 29, 2008, the Political Research Center’s Florida bellwether, Hillsborough County, almost exactly matched the statewide Republican Primary results. On Jan. 8, 2008, the New Hampshire Presidential Primary bellwether towns – Kingston and Sandown – predicted a Clinton win in the Democratic Primary, while no other leading indicator in the country had Clinton winning. The bellwether analysis was also highly successful as an added statistical test to the statewide polls of Democratic voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The bellwether analysis was also used in both the 2006 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Democratic Primary and General Elections.

Suffolk University interviewed 361 likely Democratic voters from a randomly selected list of 5,000 residents of Delaware County, Ind. All phoning took place on Sunday, May 4, and Monday, May 5, 2008. There was an equal probability of contacting and interviewing registered voters of all party affiliations, provided that they identified themselves as very likely or somewhat likely to take a Democratic ballot on Tuesday. The execution of the identification interviews was by live telephone call. For more information, please contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

May 5, 2008 -- Poll: Clinton Leads Obama in Hoosier State

Suffolk University Survey Shows 38 percent Will Cast McCain Vote if their Preferred Candidate Loses Nomination

BOSTON – Hillary Clinton (49 percent) leads Barack Obama (43 percent) among likely Indiana Democratic voters, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.

Six percent of Democratic voters were undecided, and 2 percent refused a response. However, 38 percent of these likely Democratic voters -- which include registered Democrats, Republicans, members of other political parties and independents -- said they would vote for John McCain in November if their Democratic choice does not win the party’s nomination.

"It’s no slam-dunk, but Hillary Clinton is poised to win the Hoosier state, provided there aren’t some critical turnovers late," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.† "Although the margin appears to be single digits at this point, the outcome will hinge on high turnouts in Marion and Lake counties, which are crucial for Obama."

Despite Clinton’s lead, Obama was seen as more popular (58 percent favorable - 29 percent unfavorable) than Clinton (53 percent favorable - 36 percent unfavorable). In addition, slightly more voters said that Obama (35 percent) would be the next president, compared to 28 percent for Clinton and 25 percent for McCain.

Only 44 percent of Indiana Democratic Primary voters said that, if their choice lost the Democratic nomination, they would still vote Democratic. A considerably high 38 percent indicated they would vote for McCain, while 6 percent said they would vote for independent Ralph Nader, and an additional 11 percent were undecided.

"This 38 percent is one of several statistical signs that Republicans are meddling in the Democratic fray, knowing full well they will vote Republican come November," said Paleologos.

A majority (54 percent) cited the economy as the most important issue facing the country, followed by the war in Iraq (21 percent) and health care (12 percent).

In other Suffolk University findings, a plurality of Democratic Primary voters (48 percent) said they favored making the president’s tax cuts permanent, while only 33 percent opposed. Seventy percent of respondents rejected tax increases to help close the budget deficit gap, while 23 percent supported them.

In the race for the Democratic nomination for governor, Jill Long Thompson (35 percent) led Jim Schellinger (27 percent). Meanwhile, a whopping 36 percent still have not made a choice, suggesting that some of these undecided voters will vote Republican for governor come November.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted May 3 and May 4, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 600 is +/- 4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic Primary voters in the May 6 Indiana Democratic Presidential Primary. Marginals and cross-tabulation data will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center Web site – www.suffolk.edu/college/1450.html -- on May 5. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

Suffolk University has selected a bellwether area in Indiana to call on the evenings of May 4 and May 5 as an added predictor module for possible election outcomes. This data will be posted May 6.

May 2, 2008 -- Bernstein and Wells to speak at Suffolk University Commencement Exercises

BOSTON -- Pulitzer-Prize-winning journalist Carl Bernstein and H. Thomas Wells, Jr., president-elect of the American Bar Association, will be the speakers as Suffolk University awards eight honorary degrees at its commencement exercises on Sunday, May 18, 2008, at the Bank of America Pavilion on Boston’s waterfront.

The Law School ceremonies will be held at 9:30 a.m., with Wells speaking, and Bernstein will appear at the College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer Business School ceremonies at 2 p.m.

Carl Bernstein worked with fellow Washington Post investigative reporter Bob Woodward to uncover the Watergate cover-up that led to the resignation of President Richard Nixon. He is the co-author, with Woodward, of the best-seller All the President’s Men, which was made into a film, and The Final Days, an account of Nixon’s last days in office. His most recent book is A Woman in Charge, a biography of Hillary Rodham Clinton. Bernstein is now a political commentator and has been offering analysis of the 2008 election on CNN. He will receive the honorary Doctor of Journalism degree at the afternoon ceremony.

H. Thomas Wells Jr., will become president of the American Bar Association in August. He is a partner and founding member at Maynard, Cooper & Gale, P.C., in Birmingham, Ala. His practice is focused on complex environmental, toxic tort law and products liability litigation. Wells has served in leadership roles in the Alabama State Bar, the Birmingham Bar Association and the American Bar Association. He was co-chair of the ABA’s Special Committee on Disaster Response, established after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina and has served on the ABA Commission on the American Jury and its Commission on the Future of the Legal Profession. Wells will receive the honorary Doctor of Laws degree at the morning ceremony.

The following honorees will join Wells in receiving honorary degrees from the Law School:

The Hon, Michael E. Capuano, representative, Eight Congressional District, honorary Doctor of Laws
The Hon. Richard G. Stearns, U.S. District judge, District of Massachusetts, honorary Doctor of Laws
The Hon. Laura Taylor Swain, U.S. District judge, Southern District of New York, honorary Doctor of Laws

The following honorees will join Bernstein in receiving honorary degrees from the College of Arts and Sciences and Sawyer Business School:

Joseph P. Campanelli, president and CEO of Sovereign Bancorp, Inc., and Sovereign Bank, honorary Doctor of Commercial Science
Maxine Hong Kingston, award-winning author, honorary Doctor of Humane Letters
Vivian Pinn, director of the Office of Research on Women’s Health at the National Institutes of Health, honorary Doctor of Science

On Saturday, May 17, Suffolk University’s Graduate School ceremonies will take place. Joseph P. Campanelli will address the Sawyer School of Business graduate students at 10 a.m., Sheraton Boston, 39 Dalton St. Maxine Hong Kingston will address the College of Arts and Sciences graduate students at 1 p.m. at the Renaissance Boston Waterfront Hotel, 606 Congress St. Campanelli and Kingston each will be awarded honorary degrees at the afternoon undergraduate commencement exercises on Sunday, May 18.

April 22, 2008 -- Bellwether Points to Clinton Win in Penn.

New Suffolk University Research Analyzes Allegheny County Households

See Frequencies

BOSTON – The Pennsylvania bellwether area of Allegheny County points to Hillary Clinton to win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary, according to election-eve research conducted by Suffolk University.

In the random-digit-dial selection of likely Democratic households, Clinton led Barack Obama 52 percent-to-40 percent, with 6 percent undecided and 2 percent refusing to respond. This closely mirrors the 52 percent-to-42 percent statewide Democratic poll released by the Suffolk University Political Research Center on the morning of April 21.

Although bellwethers are not designed to depict actual margins, they have been remarkably accurate in predicting outcomes.

The Center’s analysis was made using a new election predictor module first employed successfully with the New Hampshire Democratic Primary; the GOP Florida Primary; the Democratic Primaries in California, Massachusetts and Tennessee; and the Ohio Election Day results. It is based on a number of statistical indices, including statewide polling and bellwether geographic areas.

“A cautionary word or two: Past bellwether performance is a guide but not a 100 percent guarantee of future performance,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “New bellwethers often are created every election cycle as people migrate and as development and geography-driven issues emerge. In addition, local endorsements from popular people can skew margins.”

The last two times a non-incumbent president was on a presidential preference ballot in Allegheny County, the bellwether area mirrored the exact order of finish statewide and was within 5 percent for the top three vote-getters in each major party.

A brief historical summary follows:

Pennsylvania Primary	Allegheny County	Statewide
1988 Democrat	Dukakis 70% Jackson 23% Gore 4%	Dukakis 67% Jackson 27% Gore 3%
1988 Republican	Bush 74% Dole 14% Robertson 12%	Bush 79% Dole 12% Robertson 9%
2000 Democrat	Gore 74% Bradley 22% LaRouche 4%	Gore 74% Bradley 21% LaRouche 5%
2000 Republican	Bush 74% McCain 22% Forbes 3%	Bush 74% McCain 22% Forbes 3%
4/21/08 Bellwether Democrat	Clinton 52% Obama 40%	Clinton 52% Obama 42%

On Jan. 29, 2008, the Political Research Center’s Florida bellwether, Hillsborough County, almost exactly matched the statewide Republican Primary results. On Jan. 8, 2008, the New Hampshire Presidential Primary bellwether towns – Kingston and Sandown – predicted a Clinton win in the Democratic Primary, while no other leading indicator in the country had Clinton winning. The bellwether analysis also was an added tool used successfully by the Center for Political Research in both the 2006 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Democratic Primary and General Election.

Suffolk University interviewed 402 likely Democratic voters from a randomly selected list of 5,000 residents of Allegheny County. All phoning took place on Sunday, April 20, and Monday, April 21. There was an equal probability of contacting and interviewing newly registered voters, recent party-switch registrants and longtime Democratic households, provided those contacted were registered Democrats and intended to vote in the Democratic Primary on Tuesday, April 22. The execution of the ID interviews was by live telephone call. For more information, please contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.

April 21, 2008 -- Poll: Clinton Headed for Keystone State Win

Suffolk University Survey Shows 20 percent Will Cast McCain Vote if their Preferred Candidate Loses Nomination

See Marginals and Cross Tabs

BOSTON – Hillary Clinton (52 percent) leads Barack Obama (42 percent) among likely Pennsylvania Democratic voters, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University. Four percent of Democratic voters were undecided, and 2 percent refused a response. However, 20 percent of these likely Democratic voters said they would vote for John McCain in November if their Democratic choice does not win their party’s nomination.

In addition to the 20 percent of disgruntled Democratic voters defecting to McCain, another 4 percent would vote for independent Ralph Nader, and 20 percent were undecided about what they would ultimately do in November.

"Hillary Clinton’s projected win in Pennsylvania poses some serious problems for the Democratic Party at this point," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "First, it continues a bitter battle between the Democratic combatants; second, with 20 percent of core Democratic supporters fleeing to McCain, electability in November becomes a quantifiable problem; and third, it begs the question of who in the Democratic Party will become the ultimate peacemaker."

Nader’s 4 percent could potentially quadruple, as 17 percent of Democratic respondents said that if their first choice does not get the Democratic nomination, they may vote for Nader.

Asked who would be the next president, more Democrats picked Obama (42 percent) regardless of whom they personally supported. Thirty-two percent chose Clinton, and 14 percent chose McCain, with 12 percent undecided.

A majority of respondents (56 percent) said they watched the ABC televised debate, while 44 percent did not. Clinton was the apparent winner among those who watched the debate: 46 percent said they were most impressed by her, 26 percent indicated Obama, and 28 percent were undecided.

Democrats were mostly forgiving of the recent controversies surrounding Clinton and Obama. Forty-two percent indicated that Clinton’s Bosnia comment was just a mistake, while 25 percent said she exaggerated, and 21 percent said she outright lied. Nor did Obama’s bitterness comment have traction with likely voters. Thirty-two percent agreed that his comment showed he is out of touch with rural Pennsylvania voters, while 56 percent disagreed.

Clinton (42 percent) was seen as the candidate best equipped to solve the country’s economic troubles, followed by Obama (31 percent) and McCain (10 percent), with 17 percent undecided.

In other Suffolk University findings, 42 percent of those surveyed favored making the current administration’s tax cuts permanent, while 41 percent opposed. Yet, 27 percent favored tax increases to help close the budget deficit gap, while 65 percent opposed.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted April 19 - April 20, 2008. The margin of error on the statewide survey of 600 is +/- 4.00 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. All respondents from the statewide survey were likely Democratic Primary voters in the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary. Marginals and 80 pages of cross-tabulation data will b