Incumbent U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisconsin, is running ahead of her Republican opponent in the race to keep her seat, while incumbent GOP Gov. Scott Walker is on rocky ground, with a 2-point gap behind front-runner Tony Evers in the gubernatorial contest, according to a Suffolk University/Journal Sentinel poll of likely midterm voters in Wisconsin.

Baldwin led Republican nominee Leah Vukmir, a state senator, 50 percent to 42 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Baldwin showed significant advantages among women (58 percent to 35 percent), young voters (56 percent to 38 percent), and independent/nonpartisan voters (60 percent to 24 percent.

In the six-way governor’s race, Democratic challenger Evers (46 percent) is in a dogfight with Walker (44 percent)—with a spread that is well within the margin of error. Meanwhile, Libertarian Phillip Anderson is at 2 percent, and Wisconsin Party candidate Arnie Enz, Green Party candidate Michael White and independent Maggie Turnbull are each at less than 1 percent, with 7 percent undecided.

Voters were split on Walker’s job performance, with 48 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving.

“This will be the fourth time Scott Walker has appeared on the gubernatorial ballot since 2010, and there is the potential of ‘Walker-fatigue’ for midterm voters,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston.

Unions

Half of midterm voters polled disagree with Walker’s action to sharply limit collective bargaining for unions that represent public workers (50 percent to 41 percent). Among all union households—public workers and private industry—Evers led Walker 55 percent to 36 percent.

Issues of concern

Twenty-six percent of voters consider the economy the key issue in the governor’s race, with education (18 percent) and health care (16 percent) next in importance.

Health care climbs to the top of the issues list for voters considering their U.S. Senate vote (26 percent), followed by the economy (24 percent).

Views of Trump

Though Donald Trump won Wisconsin in 2016, 53 percent of voters now disapprove of the president’s job performance, while 41 percent approve. Forty-six percent of likely voters said they want their November vote to change the direction of Trump’s leadership, while 34 percent said they want to support the direction in which he is leading the nation.

Tariffs

Trumps’ tariffs are unpopular with Wisconsin voters: 57 percent oppose the recently imposed tariffs on the EU, Canada, and Mexico, with 31 percent supporting them. And 47 percent oppose the new tariffs on China, while 39 percent support them.

Methodology

The statewide survey of 500 Wisconsin likely voters was conducted Aug. 18–Aug. 24. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, dpaleologos@suffolk.edu.