Poll: Romney Drops Two More Points, But Likely Won’t Be Caught

For the fifth day in a row, Mitt Romney has fallen in overnight tracking, but lack of movement by second place Ron Paul has insulated a likely Romney victory, according to the latest two-day Suffolk University/7News tracking poll of likely voters in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.

Romney dropped 2 more percentage points overnight but still holds a 13-point lead at 33 percent. The former Massachusetts governor has dropped a full 10 points from five days ago, when he had 43 percent of likely GOP voters.

Romney is followed by Paul (20 percent), Jon Huntsman (13 percent), Newt Gingrich (11 percent) and Rick Santorum (10 percent), while Rick Perry and Buddy Roemer combined for 3 percent with 12 percent undecided.

“Mitt Romney’s biggest asset is the large number of candidates in this group that are dividing up the remainder of the vote,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “With just a 33 percent stake, he can control his destiny, so long as the others in his group continue to battle each other. So the more people in the group the merrier for Romney.”

Romney showed weakness among younger voters and in the north/west region of the state which includes the counties of Carroll, Cheshire, Coos, Grafton, and Sullivan. Among younger voters ages 18-34 years, Romney now trails Paul, who leads 36 percent to 22 percent. In the north/west region, Paul led Romney 25 percent to 21 percent.

Currently, the highest undecided category is women ages 18-44 years. There were 19 percent undecided in this category versus just 12 percent overall.

The Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston will release results of two-day tracking polls every day leading up to the New Hampshire presidential primary on Tuesday, Jan. 10, 2012.


The statewide survey includes two nights of 250 likely respondents for a two-day tracking total of 500 likely voters in New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary. This track was conducted Jan. 7 and Jan. 8 using live telephone interviews with landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data will be posted Monday, Jan. 9, 2012, on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310. Paleologos is on site at the Manchester, N.H., media center located in the lobby of the Radisson Hotel, 700 Elm Street, Manchester through Jan. 10.