Poll: Romney Headed for Near-20-Point Win in New Hampshire
Mitt Romney is primed to complete the political perfecta of winning both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, according to the final two-day Suffolk University/7News tracking poll of likely voters in New Hampshire.
Romney (37 percent) led Ron Paul (18 percent), Jon Huntsman (16 percent), Rick Santorum (11 percent), and Newt Gingrich (9 percent), while Rick Perry and Buddy Roemer each had 1 percent, with 7 percent undecided.
“Mitt Romney may beat his closest competitor by a two- to-one margin,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “With two solid debate performances, Romney weathered the storm earlier this week, while no opponent made a serious run at him.”
The Suffolk University/7News tracking poll included all 500 respondents polled after the two presidential debates, one held Saturday night and the other Sunday morning. The tracking poll field was conducted Sunday night and Monday night.
Huntsman, who also had a strong debate performance Sunday morning, closed out his campaigning on a high note. He outpolled Paul in the final 250 surveys Monday night, although the error rate is +/- 6.20 percent for that one-day count.
“The battle for second place will be determined by which candidate has the best field organization to bring out the votes today,” Paleologos said. “A good get-out-the-vote-operation accounts for up to 5 points, which can impact an expected outcome.”
Although Huntsman polled quite well among independents (26 percent), he had a poor relative showing among registered Republicans (9 percent).
This is the final day of the Suffolk University Political Research Center’s two-day tracking polls. The next Suffolk poll will be the Florida Republican Primary in two weeks.
The statewide survey includes two nights of 250 likely respondents for a two-day tracking total of 500 likely voters in New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary. This track was conducted Jan. 8 and Jan. 9 using live telephone interviews with landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310. Paleologos is on site at the Manchester, N.H., media center located in the lobby of the Radisson Hotel, 700 Elm Street, Manchester through Jan. 10.