Suffolk University/Boston Globe Poll Shows Even Race for President in New Hampshire

New FBI email review hurting Clinton among independents

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are deadlocked at 42 percent in the all-important battle for the swing state of New Hampshire, a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll shows.

The poll shows a slight shift from October, when Clinton led by 2 points.

“Hillary Clinton has lost a couple of points since October but Donald Trump hasn’t gained them,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “The remaining undecided voters and the number of people who cast a ballot for a third party candidate will determine the outcome as both Trump and Clinton seek to win 48 percent of the New Hampshire vote, which should be good enough to win the state.” 

The poll showed 5 percent of voters supporting independent Gary Johnson and 2 percent Green Party nominee Jill Stein, with 8 percent undecided and less than 1 percent refusing a response. Also on the New Hampshire ballot is Roque “Rocky” De La Fuente of the American Delta Party but he only received the support of one respondent. 

FBI impact

Voters were split on the impact of the letter sent by FBI Director James Comey to Congress informing them that the FBI was reviewing new emails related to Hillary Clinton. Nearly 49 percent said the new revelations made them less likely to support Clinton while 45 percent said that the revelations were overblown and wouldn’t affect their vote. However, among independent voters in New Hampshire, 52 percent said the revelations made them less likely to vote for Clinton, while 40 percent said it wouldn’t affect their vote. 

Gender and gun-owner preferences 

Among women, Clinton led Trump 50 percent to Trump’s 35 percent, with Johnson receiving 4 percent and Stein 3 percent. In contrast, men preferred Trump 50 percent to Clinton’s 33 percent, while Johnson received 7 percent and Stein 2 percent. 

Among gun-owner households in New Hampshire, Trump led 52 percent to 33 percent, with Johnson at 6 percent. Non-gun-owner households preferred Clinton 52 percent to Trump’s 32 percent, with Johnson at 4 percent and Stein 3 percent. 

U.S. Senate race 

In the race for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire, Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte (44 percent) leads Gov. Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, (42 percent), Libertarian Brian Chabot (4 percent) and independent Aaron Day (1 percent), with 8 percent undecided. The race is statistically tied.

Governor’s race

In the race for governor, Republican Chris Sununu (41 percent) leads Democrat Colin Van Ostern (37 percent), with Libertarian Max Abramson receiving 6 percent and 15 percent undecided. More voters say they know Sununu, while Van Ostern still struggles with name recognition, as 14 percent of likely voters have never heard of him and an additional 22 percent haven’t formed an opinion about him. 

History of Suffolk research in New Hampshire

 In the 2014 New Hampshire general election, the final Suffolk University poll predicted a 3-point win for Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen over Republican Scott Brown; Shaheen won by 3 percent. 


 The statewide survey of 500 likely general election voters was conducted Oct. 31- Nov. 2, 2016, using live telephone interviews and a split sample of landline and cell phone numbers. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website: For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310,