N.H. Presidential Primary Tracking Poll

Rolling surveys by Suffolk University in partnership with Boston Globe and WBZ-TV

The Suffolk University Political Research Center is conducting a tracking poll of New Hampshire Democratic voters leading up to the Feb. 11 presidential primary in partnership with the Boston Globe and WBZ-TV, with the first results to be reported at 11:15 p.m. Monday, Feb. 3.

The poll will be based on daily interviews of 250 likely Democratic voters, and a two-day rolling average of 500 voters will be reported each night.

Results will be posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center and Boston Globe websites and reported on WBZ-TV News at 11.

The final night of tracking and reporting will be Sunday, Feb. 9.

Methodology

The statewide tracking survey of 500 likely Democratic primary voters consists of a two-day rolling average and includes only those respondents who indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Feb. 11 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. The first field was conducted Feb. 2-3, and is based on live telephone interviews. Each area’s quota and demographic information—including geography, gender, and age—were determined from the 2010 Census, 2018 American Community Survey, and exit polling from like elections. Samples of both standard landline (15 percent) and cell phones (85 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportionate to the number of likely voters expected based on similar open Democratic primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, dpaleologos@suffolk.edu.

 

Contact

Greg Gatlin
Office of Public Affairs
617-573-8428