Suffolk University Arizona Poll Shows Biden Leading Trump by 4 Points

Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Martha McSally by 9 points in Senate race

Former Vice President Joe Biden (50 percent) leads President Donald Trump (46 percent) in Arizona, according to a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll of voters likely to cast ballots in the November presidential election. Libertarian Jo Jorgensen was the choice of 1 percent of voters. Two percent of voters were undecided. 

Demographic Divide 

  • Gender  – Trump leads 52-44 among men while Biden leads 56-41 among women.
  • Education – Trump leads 50-46 among those with a high school diploma or less while Biden leads 61-37 among college grads or higher. 
  • Issues – Trump leads 82-12 among those who said jobs/economy is the most important issue, and Biden leads 86-14 among those who said COVID-19 is most important and 70-27 among those who say healthcare is most important.
  • Race – Biden and Trump are tied 49-49 among whites, and Biden leads 54-39 among non-whites. 

John McCain’s widow, Cindy McCain, publicly endorsed Biden just two days before the Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll began fielding. Biden has since appointed McCain to his presidential transition team.

“It’s tough to overstate the relevance of Cindy McCain’s endorsement during such a crucial juncture in the race,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “John McCain’s memory is alive and will continue to play a role in Arizona, which is a must-win state for Trump.” 


President Trump’s recent nomination of Amy Coney Barrett may not prove to be as impactful as he hoped, with the majority of Democrats and Republicans alike (60 percent and 66 percent respectively) saying it makes “no difference” in their likelihood to vote for President Trump; 62 percent who feel religion is “very important” in their lives answer the same way. 

Senate Race

Democratic nominee Mark Kelly finds himself with a strong lead (49 percent) over Republican incumbent Martha McSally (40 percent). Kelly leads 59-30 among women, while also leading 49-42 among whites and 51-35 among non-whites; Kelly also enjoys a lead among both labor unions and gun owners.  


Trump receives low marks on the coronavirus issue, a continuing trend that can be seen in multiple states now. When likely voters were asked to rate President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, 51 percent scored him as poor with 10 percent giving him a fair rating; 22 percent said Trump was doing a good job, while 14 percent gave him an excellent rating. Non-white voters were also more likely to give Trump low scores, with 57 percent feeling he’s done a poor job compared to 49 percent of white voters. 

Mail-in Voting

A majority of Arizona voters have few or no fears that widespread mail-in voting will lead to voter fraud, with 52 percent indicating they are not very or not at all concerned. Still, 47 percent of voters said they were very concerned or somewhat concerned. Despite those numbers, 64 percent plan to vote by mail-in or absentee ballot. 


The most important issues to Arizonians were bringing the country together (19 percent), jobs/economy (18 percent), COVID-19 (15 percent), and healthcare (9 percent), followed by climate change (7 percent) and racism (6 percent). 


The Arizona survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Sept. 26 - Sept. 30, 2020, using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the 2020 general election. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website: For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310,


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