Former Vice President Joe Biden has a comfortable ten-point lead over President Donald Trump in New Hampshire, according to a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of voters likely to cast ballots in the November presidential election. Among likely voters, 51% indicated they will vote for Biden, compared to 41% for President Trump. Libertarian Jo Jorgensen was the choice of 2% of voters, with 3% of voters undecided. 

There are three candidates listed on the New Hampshire ballot. 

Demographic Divide 

• Gender: Biden leads 46-45 among men, and 56-37 among women voters.
• Issues: Trump leads 78-11 among those who said jobs/economy is the most important issue, and Biden leads 75-18 among those who said COVID-19 is most important and 63-30 among those who say bringing the country together is most important. 
• Non-party voters: Biden leads 48-35 among undeclared/independent voters. The poll indicated that 7% of undeclared/independents are undecided compared to just 3% among all voters.

U.S. Senate Race 

Incumbent Senator Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leads her challenger, Republican Corky Messner, 51-36%. Two percent of voters chose Libertarian Justin O’Donnell, while 8% of voters remain undecided on their vote for U.S. Senator. 

Governor’s Race 

Despite strong leads for the Democrats in the presidential and U.S. Senate races, incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu leads Democrat Dan Feltes 55-31%. Four percent of voters prefer Libertarian Darryl Perry, and 8% of voters remain undecided. 

SCOTUS

Despite Biden’s clear lead, New Hampshire voters are more closely divided on President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett. When asked if the Senate should vote on Barrett’s nomination before the November 3rd presidential election, 49% of voters said the Senate should not vote before the election, while 46% said they should. 

Coronavirus

Trump continues to see low scores in response to his handling of COVID-19. When voters were asked to rate President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, 48% scored him as poor, with 12% giving him a fair rating; 19% said Trump was doing a good job, and 19% gave him an excellent rating. Seniors were also more likely to give Trump low scores, with 56% feeling he’s done a poor job.

These perceptions extend to the way President Trump handled his own diagnosis with COVID, with 52% responding they disapprove of the way the president handled his infection, compared to 38% approving. However, the majority of voters, 78%, say the president’s positive COVID test and recovery hasn’t changed how likely they are to vote for Trump, with 14% indicating they are less likely to vote for him and 5% that they are more likely to vote for him as a result.

Overall, New Hampshire voters are supportive of a mask mandate, with 50% of respondents indicating that Governor Chris Sununu should immediately require residents to wear a mask in public. However, 26% stated masks should not be required and should be up to the individual. 

Even with the concern among voters about the coronavirus, only 34% of respondents stated they will take a federally approved COVID-19 vaccine as soon as it is available. Forty-three percent responded they will wait until others have taken the vaccine, and 17% declared they will not take the COVID vaccine.

History

In 2016, the last Suffolk NH poll showed the race tied at 42% between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Clinton eventually won 46.8% to Trump’s 46.5%.

Methodology

The New Hampshire survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Oct. 8-Oct. 12, using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the 2020 general election. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website: www.suffolk.edu/SUPRC. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, [email protected].