Unlikely Voter Polls
Unlikely/Uncertain Voter Polls 2023
Suffolk Press Release
- Suffolk University/USA Today Poll Shows Unlikely Voters Could Have Outsized Impact on 2024 Presidential Election [PDF]
USA TODAY Articles
- USA Today: Trump's big lead: Among nonvoters, many agree with him that elections are rigged
- Paleologos on the Poll: Irony for Trump, Red Flags for Biden in Survey of Unlikely Voters
Statement of Methodology
This survey of 900 adults was conducted August 19-August 27, 2023, and is based on live telephone interviews of U.S. citizens 18 years of age and older residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Each state’s non-voter quota was determined by subtracting actual votes cast in the 2020 presidential election from the VEP (voter-eligible population) in every state for the November 2020 election. States were grouped into 4 general regions per U.S. Census designations and each region was assigned age and race quotas. Telephone numbers were called from samples of both standard landline (11%) and cell phones (89%) using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each state were proportional to the number of non-voter residents in each state. Results are statistically significant to within +/- 3.3 percentage points on the entire sample.
The error margin increases for subgroups/cross-tabulations which follow.