Unlikely Voter Polls

Cutting Edge Research on the "Other America" - Suffolk University

Unlikely/Uncertain Voter Polls 2023

Poll Documents:

Suffolk Press Release

USA TODAY Articles

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 900 adults was conducted August 19-August 27, 2023, and is based on live telephone interviews of U.S. citizens 18 years of age and older residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Each state’s non-voter quota was determined by subtracting actual votes cast in the 2020 presidential election from the VEP (voter-eligible population) in every state for the November 2020 election. States were grouped into 4 general regions per U.S. Census designations and each region was assigned age and race quotas. Telephone numbers were called from samples of both standard landline (11%) and cell phones (89%) using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each state were proportional to the number of non-voter residents in each state. Results are statistically significant to within +/- 3.3 percentage points on the entire sample.
The error margin increases for subgroups/cross-tabulations which follow.