2014 MA Polls
November 3, 2014: Massachusetts & New Hampshire General Election Bellwethers
Massachusetts Bellwethers
Statement of Methodology
The Waltham and Gloucester bellwether IDs each included 300 likely voters randomly selected from a list of voters who indicated that they were very likely to vote or had already voted. The Massachusetts field was conducted Saturday, November 1, through Sunday, November 2, 2014. The margin of error for each of the four bellwethers is +/- 5.65 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.
New Hampshire Bellwethers
Statement of Methodology
The Manchester and Epping bellwether IDs each included 300 likely voters randomly selected from a list of voters who indicated that they were very likely to vote or had already voted. The New Hampshire field was conducted Thursday, October 30, through Sunday, November 2, 2014. The margin of error for each of the four bellwethers is +/- 5.65 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.
Press Release
Key Names/Issues
Martha Coakley, Charlie Baker, Evan Falchuk, Scott Lively, Jeffrey McCormick, Jeanne Shaheen, Scott Brown, Maggie Hassan, Walt Havenstein
October 30, 2014: Massachusetts Governor, General Election, Ballot Questions & Statewide Issues
Poll Documents
Statement of Methodology
The statewide Suffolk University survey was conducted through live interviews of landline and cell phone users. All respondents indicated that they were very likely to vote in the Nov. 4 general election. The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Monday, Oct. 27, through Wed., Oct. 29. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Press Release
Baker Up by 3 Points in Tight Governor's Race
Key Names/Issues
Deval Patrick, Barack Obama, Martha Coakley, Charlie Baker, Evan Falchuk, Jeff McCormick, Scott Douglas Lively, Ed Markey, Brian Herr, Elizabeth Warren, women's rights, casinos, gas taxes, bottle bill, paid sick time, Obamacare
September 29, 2014: Massachusetts Governor, General Election, Ballot Questions & Statewide Issues
Poll Documents
Press Release
Suffolk University/Boston Herald Poll Shows Coakley & Baker Dead Even in Governor's Race
Statement of Methodology
The statewide Suffolk University survey was conducted through live interviews of landline and cell phone users. All respondents indicated that they were very likely to vote in the Nov. 4 general election. The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Thursday, Sept. 25, through Sunday, Sept. 28. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Martha Coakley, Charlie Baker, Ed Markey, Brian Herr, Maura Healey, John Miller, William Galvin, David D'Arcangelo, Ian Jackson, Deborah Goldberg, Michael Heffernan, Suzanne Bump, Patricia Saint Aubin, MK Merelice, Casinos, Paid Sick Time, Expanded Bottle Bill, Gas Tax
September 8, 2014: Massachusetts Democratic Primary Bellwethers
Marginals
Press Release
Bellwethers Show Martha Coakley Holding Lead in Governor's Race
Statement of Methodology
Each bellwether survey included 300 very likely voters randomly selected from a super voter list of respondents who knew when the Democratic primary would be held. All other respondents were screened out. The field was conducted September 6-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/-5.65 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Bellwethers are designed to predict outcomes, not margins.
Key Names/Issues
Martha Coakley, Steven Grossman, Donald Berwick
August 25, 2014: Massachusetts Democratic & Republican Gubernatorial Primaries
Democratic Primary
Republican Primary
Press Release
Democratic Primary Poll Shows Coakley Up by 12; Republican Baker Up by 60
Statement of Methodology
The statewide Suffolk University survey of Democrats used a call list of voters from at least three of the past four statewide Democratic primaries, including the 2002 and 2006 Democratic primaries for governor and the 2009 and 2013 special Democratic primaries for U.S. Senate. On the Republican side, the list used was the last contested statewide Republican primary for U.S. Senate in 2013. All respondents indicated that they were very likely to vote in and could identify the date or timeframe of the upcoming party primaries on September 9. Each survey of 400 likely voters was conducted Thursday, Aug. 21, through Sunday, Aug. 24. The margin of error is +/-4.9 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Charlie Baker, Mark Fisher, Karyn Polito, John Miller, David D'Arcangelo, Michael Heffernan, Patricia Saint Aubin, Mitt Romney, Brian Herr, Deval Patrick, Martha Coakley, Steven Grossman, Elizabeth Warren, Ed Markey, Donald Berwick, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton
June 9, 2014: Massachusetts Gubernatorial Primaries & General Election
Poll Documents
Press Release
Suffolk University Poll Shows Casino Support Losing Ground in Massachusetts
Statement of Methodology
The statewide Suffolk University survey included a field of 800 voters who said they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the 2014 gubernatorial election. The survey was conducted from June 4-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The margin of error for the Democratic voter subset of 450 voters is +/-4.6 percentage points, and the margin of error for the Republican voter subset of 202 voters is +/-6.9 percentage points.
Key Names/Issues
Deval Patrick, Martha Coakley, Steve Grossman, Charlie Baker, Mark Fisher, Juliette Kayyem, Donald Berwick, Joseph Avellone, casino gambling, SUPER PACs, DCF
February 4, 2014: Massachusetts Governor & Statewide Issues
Poll Documents
Statement of Methodology
The statewide Suffolk University survey, using a split sample of landline and cell phone numbers, included a field of 600 voters who said they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the 2014 gubernatorial election. The survey was conducted from January 29–February 3, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Press Release
Key Names/Issues
Deval Patrick, Martha Coakley, Steve Grossman, Juliette Kayyem, Charlie Baker, Mark Fisher, Evan Falchuk, Joseph Avellone, Donald Berwick, minimum wage, Affordable Care Act, marijuana, casino gambling