2015 NH Polls
November 23, 2015: New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
Poll Documents
Press Release
Trump on Top But Rubio Emerging
Statement of Methodology
This survey of 500 likely Republican Primary voters was conducted between November 17 and November 19, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were planning to vote in the Republican presidential primary. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar open Republican primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues
Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Paris attacks, ISIS
October 22, 2015: New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary
Poll Documents
Press Release
Poll Shows Dead Heat Between Clinton and Sanders in New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Statement of Methodology
This survey of 500 likely Democratic Primary voters was conducted between October 14 and October 15, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were planning to vote in the Democratic presidential primary in four months. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar open Democratic primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues
Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb, Larry Lessig, Lincoln Chafee, Joe Biden, Barack Obama, gun control, Clinton email issue, Democratic debate
June 23, 2015: New Hampshire 2016 Republican Presidential Primary
Poll Documents
Press Release
Bush the Early Leader, While Trump Advances in Poll of NH GOP Primary
Statement of Methodology
This survey of 500 likely Republican Primary voters was conducted between June 18 and June 22, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were planning to vote in the Republican presidential primary. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar open Republican primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues
Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, Scott Walker, Maco Rubio, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, Bob Ehrlich, Mark Everson, Jim Gilmore, Obamacare, illegal immigration, taxes
June 16, 2015: New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary
Poll Documents
Press Release
Poll Shows Sanders Closing Gap on Clinton in New Hampshire
Statement of Methodology
This survey of 500 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted between June 11 and June 15, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were planning to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected, based on similar open Democratic presidential primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues
Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Barack Obama, Maggie Hassan, Benghazi, Clinton Foundation, Obamacare
March 26, 2015: New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
Poll Documents
Press Release
Poll Shows Bush and Walker Early in NH GOP Favorites
Statement of Methodology
This survey of 500 likely Republican Primary voters was conducted between March 21 and March 24, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were planning to vote in the Republican presidential primary. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar open Republican primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Key Names/Issues
Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Obamacare, taxes, abortion, same-sex marriage, Tea Party