2016

2016 Polls

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Poll Shows Even Race for President in Granite State

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely New Hampshire general-election voters was conducted between October 31 and November 2, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 10 New Hampshire counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Chris Sununu, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Kelly Ayotte, Colin Van Ostern, Maggie Hassan, Jill Stein, Rocky De La Fuente, FBI, James Comey, email investigation, Brian Chabot, Aaron Day, Max Abramson

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Poll Shows Statistical Dead Heat in N.H. With 2-Point Advantage for Clinton

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely New Hampshire general-election voters was conducted between October 3 and October 5, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 10 New Hampshire counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Chris Sununu, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Kelly Ayotte, Con Van Ostern, Maggie Hassan, Jill Stein, Rocky De La Fuente, Brian Chabot, Aaron Day, Max Abramson

Poll Documents

Democratic Marginals [PDF]

Democratic Tables [PDF]

Republican Marginals [PDF]

Republican Tables [PDF]

Statement of Methodology

The survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters was conducted between February 3 and February 4, 2016. The survey of 500 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted between February 2 and February 4, 2016. Both are based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were planning to vote in the presidential primaries. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar open Republican and Democratic primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump

Bellwether Predictions

Pollster David Paleologos uses historical election data to predict bellwether communities for the 2016 Democratic and Republican New Hampshire Presidential primaries.

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Trump Maintains Lead in Poll of NH GOP Primary Voters

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Republican Primary voters was conducted between January 25 and January 27, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were planning to vote in the Republican presidential primary. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar open Republican primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Michael Bloomberg, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Poll Shows Sanders Leading Clinton in NH Democratic Primary

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted between January 19 and January 21, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were planning to vote in the Democratic presidential primary in four months. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar open Democratic primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Martin O'Malley, Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Maggie Hassan, Donald Trump, gun control, Obamacare, Clinton email issue, Benghazi