Suffolk University Minnesota Poll Shows Biden Leading Trump by 7 Points

Nearly half of Minnesotans don’t want a vote on SCOTUS before end of Trump term

Former Vice President Joe Biden (47 percent) leads President Donald Trump (40 percent) in Minnesota, according to a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll of voters likely to cast ballots in the November presidential election. Libertarian Jo Jorgensen was the choice of 2 percent of voters, while Independent Alliance Party candidate Rocky De La Fuente and independent Kanye West each received 1 percent, with another 1 percent divided among others on the ballot. Six percent of voters were undecided.

There are nine presidential candidates certified on the Minnesota ballot.

Demographic divide

  • Gender - Trump leads 50-35 among men and Biden leads 57-31 among women.
  • Education - Trump leads 49-38 among high school grads or less, Biden leads 62-30 among college grads or higher.
  • Gun owners - Trump leads 53-32 among gun owners and Biden leads 68-22 among non-gun owning households.
  • Issues - Trump leads 75-14 among those who said jobs/economy is the most important issue and Biden leads 79-17 among those who said COVID-19 is most important; 78-13 among those who say healthcare is most important; and 90-0 among those who say climate change is most important.
  • Race – Biden led Trump 47-44 among whites and 53-21 among non-whites. However, West received 6 percent of the non-white vote and De La Fuente and Jorgensen each received 3 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

"On the surface, Kanye West’s 1 percent looks meaningless in the grand scheme of things,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “But if he continues to win 6 percent of non-white voters, it comes at Joe Biden’s expense and, although it doesn’t matter right now, it could matter if the race closes to a 1- or 2-point race.”

In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump by just over 1 percent in Minnesota.

SCOTUS

With President Trump expected to nominate a justice to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 49 percent of voters are saying “not so fast,” while 43 percent believe the Senate should act on Trump’s nominee before his term is up.

Senate race

Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party nominee Tina Smith (45 percent) is well positioned to win reelection over Republican challenger Jason Lewis (35 percent), with Kevin O’Connor (Legal Marijuana Now Party) receiving 2 percent and Oliver Steinberg (Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis Party) receiving 1 percent, with 14 percent undecided.

Coronavirus

Trump continues to score poorly in state after state on the coronavirus issue. When likely voters were asked to rate President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, 49 percent scored him as poor and 15 percent gave him a fair rating, while 18 percent said good, and 17 percent rated him excellent.

Police protests

In the wake of continued protests resulting from the George Floyd murder in Minnesota, nearly 1 in 5 voters (18 percent) would like to see the police defunded. And nearly 1 in 5 voters (18 percent) said they had participated in protests over the summer either virtually or in person.

Mail-in voting

As Minnesota begins to send out mail-in ballots, the state is split on whether widespread mail-in voting will lead to voter fraud. Slightly over half (50 percent) said they were very or somewhat concerned, while 49 percent were not very or not at all concerned.

Issues

The most important issues to Minnesotans were bringing the country together (26 percent), jobs/economy (16 percent), COVID-19 (13 percent), healthcare (8 percent), and choosing a Supreme Court nominee and climate change (tied at 6 percent).

Methodology

The Minnesota survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Sept. 20 - Sept. 24, 2020, using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the 2020 general election. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website: www.suffolk.edu/SUPRC. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, dpaleologos@suffolk.edu.

Media Contact

Greg Gatlin
Office of Public Affairs
617-573-8428
ggatlin@suffolk.edu