Other States

Poll Documents

Volusia County, Florida Marginals [PDF]

Clark County, Ohio Marginals [PDF] 

SUPRC Historical Bellwether Accuracy [PDF]

Press Release

Suffolk University Florida Bellwether Shows Dead Heats in U.S. Senate & Governor’s Races

Statement of Methodology

Using the combined voter lists from the November 2014 midterm, the November 2016 presidential election, and the newly registered voters since 2016, the bellwether ID voters were called using a tight screen in which all respondents indicated that they were almost certain to vote in the upcoming midterm election or had already voted. All other respondents were screened out. The field was conducted Thursday, November 1–Saturday, November 3, 2018. The margin of error for 300 respondents is +/- 5.65 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Bellwethers are designed to predict winners, not margins of victory.

Key Names

Rick Scott, Bill Nelson, Ron DeSantis, Andrew Gillum, Darcy Richardson, Ryan Foley, Kyle Gibson, Bruce Stanley, Sherrod Brown, Jim Renacci, Richard Cordray, Mike DeWine, Constance Gadell-Newton, Travis Irvine 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

SU/USA TODAY Network Poll of Florida Midterm Voters Shows Margin of Error Races for Both US Senate and Governor 

Statement of Methodology

 This survey of 500 likely Florida general election voters was conducted between October 25 and October 28, 2018, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote or had already voted in the November 2018 general election for governor and US senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 67 Florida counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

 Rick Scott, Bill Nelson, Ron DeSantis, Andrew Gillum, Darcy Richardson, Ryan Foley, Kyle Gibson, Bruce Stanley, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, impeachment, AR-15 rife, semi-automatic weapons ban, Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), Question #3 (authorization of casino gambling), Question #4 (restore felon voting rights), Question #9 (ban offshore drilling/indoor vaping), Question #13 (phase out commercial dog racing) 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Democrats Lead in Ohio's US Senate and Statewide Races  

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Ohio general election voters was conducted between October 4 and October 8, 2018, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2018 general election for governor and US Senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 88 Ohio counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Poll Shows Democrat Leading in Arizona's US Senate Race 

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Arizona general-election voters was conducted between September 27 and September 30, 2018, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2018 general election for governor and US Senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 15 Arizona counties were grouped into three general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Martha McSally, Kyrsten Sinema, Angela Green, Doug Ducey, David Garcia, Angel Torres, Donald Trump, Jeff Flake, impeachment, Christine Blasey Ford, Brett Kavanaugh, economy, AR-15, semiautomatic weapons ban, Proposition 125 (public retirement systems), Proposition 126 (taxation of services), Proposition 127 (renewable energy production), Proposition 305 (education empowerment scholarships), Proposition 306 (uses of campaign funds) 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

SU/Reno Gazette Journal Poll Shows No Clear Leaders in Nevada’s U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial Races

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Nevada general-election voters was conducted between September 5 and September 10, 2018, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2018 general election for governor and US Senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 16 Nevada counties as well as Carson City were grouped into three general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

SU/Journal Sentinel Wisconsin Poll Shows U.S. Sen. Baldwin, the Democratic Incumbent, Up by 8 Points

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Wisconsin general-election voters was conducted between August 18 and August 24, 2018, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2018 general election for governor and US Senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 72 Wisconsin counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows.

Key Names/Issues

Tammy Baldwin, Leah Vukmir, Phillip Anderson, Arnie Enz, Tony Evers, Maggie Turnbull, Scott Walker, Michael White, Tomah VA, Foxconn, Donald Trump, collective bargaining rights, tariffs, China, EU, Canada, Mexico 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

SU/St. Cloud Times Minnesota Poll Shows Democratic Strength

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Minnesota general-election voters was conducted between August 17 and August 20, 2018, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2018 general election for governor and US Senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 87 Minnesota counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. 

Key Names/Issues

Karin Housley, Tina Smith, Sarah Wellington, Jerry Trooien, Jim Newberger, Amy Klobuchar, Paula Overby, Dennis Schuller, Jeff Johnson, Tim Walz, Josh Welter, Chris Wright, minimum wage, Donald Trump, Al Franken, Mark Dayton, US Congress, sexual harassment/misconduct, refugees in Minnesota 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF] 

Press Release

Poll Shows Strong Lead for Incumbent U.S. Senator King in Maine

Statement of Methodology

 This survey of 500 likely Maine general-election voters was conducted between August 2 and August 6, 2018, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2018 general election for governor and US Senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 16 Maine counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows.

Key Names/Issues

Eric Brakey, Angus King, Zak Ringelstein, Alan Caron, Teresea Hayes, Janet Mills, Shawn Moody, Donald Trump, Susan Collins, Paul LePage, Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), Medicaid expansion, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

SU/Reno Gazette Journal Poll Shows Nevada's U.S. Senate and Governor’s Races Too Close to Call

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Nevada general-election voters was conducted between July 25 and July 29, 2018, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2018 general election for governor and US Senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 16 Nevada counties as well as Carson City were grouped into three general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Kamau Bakari, Richard Charles, Tim Hagan, Dean Heller, Barry Michaels, Jacky Rosen, Donald Trump, Russell Best, Ryan Bundy, Adam Laxalt, Jared Lord, Steve Sisolak, Catherine Cortez Masto, Brian Sandoval, Harry Reid, Question 3, prostitution, universal background checks, economy, corruption, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF] 

Press Release

SU/York Daily Record Poll Shows Democrats Leading in Pennsylvania Statewide Races

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Pennsylvania general election voters was conducted between June 21 and June 25, 2018, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2018 general election for governor and US Senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 67 Pennsylvania counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Bob Casey Jr., Lou Barletta, Tom Wolf, Scott Wagner, 2018 midterm elections, Donald Trump, family separation at US border, Pennsylvania redistricting, gun control, open primaries, minimum wage increase Hillary Clinton, Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, 2016 presidential election 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF] 

Press Release

SU/Cincinnati Enquirer Poll Shows Blue Wave in Ohio Midterm Election

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Ohio general election voters was conducted between June 6 and June 11, 2018, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2018 general election for governor and US Senate. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 88 Ohio counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Richard Cordray, Mike DeWine, Constance Gadell-Newton, Sherrod Brown, Jim Renacci, Donald Trump, John Kasich, Ohio expanded Medicaid program, gun control, corruption, medical marijuana, dispensaries, Hillary Clinton, Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, 2016 presidential election