2014 Other States Polls
October 27, 2014: Louisiana Non-Partisan Blanket Primary for US Senate
Poll Documents
Press Release
Poll Shows Landrieu, Cassidy Winning Top 2 Spots in Louisiana Primary for US Senate
Paleologos On The Poll
Statement of Methodology
The survey was conducted via random-digit dial of landline and cell phones. All respondents said that they are very likely to vote or had already voted in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Thursday, Oct. 23, through Sunday, Oct. 26. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Barack Obama, Mary Landrieu, Hillary Clinton, Bill Cassidy, Rob Maness, Bobby Jindal, Common Core, fracking, Ebola virus, Obamacare, Medicaid, economy
October 22, 2014: Colorado US Senate, Governor & General Election
Poll Documents
Press Release
Poll Shows Republican Gardner Leading by 7 Points in Colorado US Senate Race
Paleologos On The Poll
Statement of Methodology
The Suffolk University/USA TODAY survey was conducted via landline and cell phone. All respondents indicated that they were very likely to vote or had already voted in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, October 18, through Tuesday, October 21. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Mark Udall, John Hickenlooper, Cory Gardner, Bob Beauprez, campaign ads, Ebola virus, Obamacare, economy, marijuana implementation, personhood, genetically modified foods
October 15, 2014: Iowa US Senate & Governor General Election
Poll Documents
Press Release
Poll Shows Ernst Pulling Away in Iowa Senate Race
Paleologos On The Poll
Statement of Methodology
The survey was conducted via landline and cell phone respondents. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Oct. 11, through Tuesday, Oct. 14. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Tom Harkin, Terry Branstad, Bruce Braley, Joni Ernst, Jack Hatch, economy, Obamacare, voter ID laws, political ads
October 8, 2014: North Carolina US Senate General Election
Poll Documents
Press Release
North Carolina Poll Shows Hagan Still leading by 2 Points
Paleologos On The Poll
Statement of Methodology
The survey was conducted via random-digit dial of landline and cell phones. All respondents said that they are very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Oct. 4, through Tuesday, Oct. 7. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Kay Hagan, Thom Tillis, Sean Haugh, Pat McCrory, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Obamacare, economy
October 1, 2014: Kansas US Senate, Governor & General Election
Poll Documents
Press Release
Kansas Poll Shows Independent Greg Orman Leading Incumbent Pat Roberts in US Senate Race
Paleologos On The Poll
Statement of Methodology
The Suffolk University/USA TODAY survey was conducted via landline and cell phone. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Sept. 27, through Tuesday, Sept. 30. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Greg Orman, Pat Roberts, Paul Davis, Sam Brownback, Kris Kobach, Jean Kurtis Schodorf, Derek Schmidt, AJ Kotich, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Andrew Cuomo, charitable raffles, health care, foreign policy, terrorism, jobs, federal budget deficit
September 24, 2014: Arkansas Midterm Election & Statewide Issues
Poll Documents
Press Release
Arkansas Poll Shows Tight Races for US Senate & Governor
Paleologos On The Poll
Statement of Methodology
The Suffolk University/USA TODAY survey was conducted via landline and cell phone. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Sept. 20, through Tuesday, Sept. 23. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Mike Beebe, Mark Pryor, Tom Cotton, Mike Ross, Asa Hutchinson, term limits, lobbying, alcohol legalization, minimum wage, Obamacare, economy
September 17, 2014: Colorado Midterm Elections & Statewide Issues
Poll Documents
Press Release
Poll Shows Dead Heat in Colorado US Senate Race
Paleologos On The Poll
Statement of Methodology
The survey was conducted via landline and cell phone. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Sept. 13, through Tuesday, Sept. 16. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Mark Udall, Cory Gardner, Gaylon Kent, Raul Acosta, Bill Hammons, Steve Shogun, Bob Beauprez, John Hickenlooper, Harry Hempy, Matthew Hess, Mike Dunafon, Paul Fiorino, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney, Obamacare, marijuana, personhood
September 11, 2014: Michigan Governor, US Senate & Statewide Issues
Poll Documents
Press Release
Poll Shows Michigan Races for US Senate & Governor Trending Democratic
Paleologos On The Poll
Statement of Methodology
The survey was conducted via land line and cell phone. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Sept. 6, through Wednesday, Sept. 10. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Barack Obama, Carl Levin, Rick Snyder, Matt Schauer, Mary Buzuma, Paul Homeniuk, Mark McFarlin, Terri Lynn Land, Gary Peters, Jim Fulner, Chris Wahmhoff, Richard Matkin, Obamacare
August 27, 2014: Iowa Senate & Governor General Election
Poll Documents
Press Release
Poll Shows Iowa Senate Race Dead Even
Paleologos On The Poll
Statement of Methodology
The survey was conducted via landline and cell phone. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the Nov. 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, Aug. 23, through Tuesday, Aug. 26. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Tom Harkin, Terry Branstad, Bruce Braley, Joni Ernst, Jack Hatch, Lee Hieb, Jonathan Narcisse, Rick Stewart, Bob Quast, Douglas Butzier, Ruth Smith, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Obamacare, economy
August 20, 2014: North Carolina US Senate & Gubernatorial General Election
Poll Documents
Press Release
NC Poll Shows Incumbent Senator Hagan Up by 2 Points
Paleologos On The Poll
Statement of Methodology
The survey was conducted via random-digit dial of 68 percent landline and 32 percent cell phone respondents. All respondents indicated that they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 4 election. The field of 500 likely general-election voters was conducted Saturday, August 16, through Tuesday, August 19. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence.
Key Names/Issues
Kay Hagan, Thom Tillis, Sean Haugh, Barack Obama, Pat McCrory, Dan River, Obamacare
June 2, 2014: Iowa & Montana Midterm Election Primary Bellwethers
Iowa Republican Primary
Black Hawk County Marginals [PDF]
Washington County Marginals [PDF]
Montana Democratic Primary
Cascade County Marginals [PDF]
Glacier County Marginals [PDF]
Press Release
Political Research Center Bellwethers Predict Nominees in Key Senate Races
Statement of Methodology
Using party primary voter lists, the bellwether IDs were called using a tight screen. All respondents indicated that they were likely to vote in the state’s respective primaries or had already voted. All other respondents were screened out. The field was conducted Tuesday, May 27 – Friday, May 30, 2014. The margin of error for 300 respondents is +/- 5.65 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Bellwethers are designed to predict winners, not margins or runners-up.
May 15, 2014: Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Bellwethers
Bellwether Marginals
Press Release
Suffolk University Bellwethers Show Wolf the Likely Democratic Nominee for Governor in Pennsylvania
Statement of Methodology
Using party primary good voter lists the bellwether IDs were called using a tight screen. All respondents indicated that they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary on Tuesday, May 20. All other respondents were screened out. The field was conducted Monday, May 12 – Wednesday, May 14. The margin of error for the Wayne County bellwether is +/- 5.65 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The margin of error for the Susquehanna County bellwether is +/- 6.93 percentage points. Bellwethers are designed to predict winners, not margins or runners-up.
April 29, 2014: Minnesota Gubernatorial & US Senate Elections, 2016 Presidential Caucuses
Poll Documents
Press Release
Poll Shows Jeb Bush and Rick Perry Leading GOP Presidential Pack in Minnesota
Statement of Methodology
The statewide Suffolk University survey used a split sample of landline and cell phone numbers and a screen to filter out low voter intensity. The field of 800 likely voters was conducted Thursday, April 24, through Monday, April 28. The margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The subset of 198 likely GOP primary voters is +/-6.96 percentage points. The subset of "first choice" presidential selections from 87 Republican and 100 Democratic precinct caucus-goers is +/-10.5 percentage points and +/-9.8 percentage points respectively.
Key Names/Issues
Hillary Clinton, Mark Dayton, Julianne Ortman, Rob Farnsworth, Scott Honour, Jeff Johnson, Marty Seifert, Dave Thompson, Kurt Zellers, Al Franken, Jim Abeler, Chris Dahlberg, Mike McFadden, Jeb Bush, Elizabeth Warren, Obamacare
April 9, 2014: Iowa Gubernatorial & US Senate Primaries, General Elections; 2016 Presidential Caucuses
Poll Documents
Press Release
Statement of Methodology
The statewide Suffolk University survey used a split sample of landline and cell phone numbers and a screen to filter out low voter intensity. The field of 800 likely voters was conducted Thursday, April 3, through Tuesday, April 8. The margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. The subset of 224 likely Republican Primary June voters carries an error rate of +/-6.55 percentage points. The margin of error is +/-8.7 percentage points for the 127 GOP caucus-goers and +/-8.4 percentage points for the 135 Democratic caucus-goers surveyed.
Key Names/Issues
Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Tom Harkin, Terry Branstad, Bruce Braley, Sam Clovis, Joni Ernst, Mark Jacobs, Scott Schaben, Matt Whitaker, Tom Hoefling, Jack Hatch, Lee Hieb, Iowa caucuses, Obamacare, voter ID