2016

Other States 2016

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release 

Poll Shows Clinton and Trump Even in Ohio

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Ohio general-election voters was conducted between October 17 and October 19, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 88 Ohio counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Kasich, Rob Portman, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Ted Strickland, Joseph DeMare, Richard Duncan, Tom Connors, Scott Rupert, presidential debate

 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

North Carolina Poll Shows Clinton Leading Trump by 2 Points

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely North Carolina general-election voters was conducted between October 10 and October 12, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 100 North Carolina counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Deborah Ross, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Richard Burr, Sean Haugh, presidential debates, Access Hollywood video, Hurricane Matthew

 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Nevada Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Leading By 6 Points

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Nevada general-election voters was conducted between September 27 and September 29, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 16 Nevada counties as well as Carson City were grouped into three general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Catherine Cortez Masto, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Joe Heck, Brian Sandoval, Harry Reid, Darrell Castle, Rocky De La Fuente, presidential debate, public safety, Tony Gumina, Tom Jones, Thomas "Tom" Sawyer, Jarrod Williams, gun control, background checks, marijuana legalization, energy deregulation

 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Poll Shows a Statistical Tie in Florida

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Florida general election voters was conducted between September 19 and September 21, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 67 Florida counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Rick Scott, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Patrick Murphy, Marco Rubio, Bill Nelson, Darrell Castle, Rocky De La Fuente, Paul Stanton, Basil Dalack, Tony Khoury, Steven Machat, Bruce Nathan, public safety, Zika virus, Centers for Disease Control, Amendment 2, medical marijuana

 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Ohio Poll Shows Trump Edging Clinton by 3 Points

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Ohio general election voters was conducted between September 12 and September 14, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 88 Ohio counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Kasich, Rob Portman, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Ted Strickland, Joseph DeMare, Richard Duncan, Tom Connors, Scott Rupert, trustworthiness, honesty, presidential debates, public safety

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Poll of North Carolina Shows Trump at 44 Percent to Clinton’s 41 Percent

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely North Carolina general election voters was conducted between September 5 and September 7, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 100 North Carolina counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Deborah Ross, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Richard Burr, Sean Haugh, trustworthy, honest, public safety

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Michigan Poll Shows Clinton Leading Trump by 7 Points

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Michigan general election voters was conducted between August 22 and August 24, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 83 Michigan counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Darrell Castle, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Emidio Mimi Soltysik, Rick Snyder

 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Suffolk University Nevada Poll Shows Clinton at 44 Percent to Trump’s 42 Percent

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Nevada general election voters was conducted between August 15 and August 17, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 16 Nevada counties and one independent city were grouped into three general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Catherine Cortez Mastro, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Joe Heck, Brian Sandoval, Harry Reid, Wall Street, firearms sales, marijuana, electrical utilities

 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Suffolk University Iowa Poll Shows Trump Leading Clinton by 1 Point

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Iowa general election voters was conducted between August 8 and August 10, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 99 Iowa counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Chuck Grassley, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Patty Judge, Rob Hogg, Zika virus

 

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Poll Shows Clinton Leading Trump by 6 Points in Florida

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Florida general election voters was conducted between August 1 and August 3, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 67 Florida counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Rick Scott, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Bill Nelson, Marco Rubio, Bernie Sanders, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, "Rocky" De La Fuente, Alan Grayson, Pam Keith, Reginald Luster, Patrick Murphy, Carlos Beruff, Ernie Rivera, Dwight Mark Anthony Young, Zika Virus

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Poll Shows Clinton Leading Trump by 9 Points in Pennsylvania

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Pennsylvania general election voters was conducted between July 25 and July 27, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 67 Pennsylvania counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Katie McGinty, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Pat Toomey, Tim Kaine, Mike Pence, ISIS, Muslim immigration, assault weapons, Clinton email investigation, FBI, Congress, Supreme Court, Post Office, IRS, Social Security, President, US Armed Forces

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Ohio Poll Shows Trump and Clinton Tied at 44 Percent

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Ohio general election voters was conducted between July 18 and July 20, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were likely to vote in the November 2016 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- was determined from previous like elections and 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline and cell phones were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar past elections. The 88 Ohio counties were grouped into five general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Rob Portman, Gary Johnson, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Ted Strickland, Joseph DeMare, Mike Pence, Thomas William Connors, Scott Rupert, terrorism, Nice, France, Muslim immigration ban, assault weapons ban, email server investigation, FBI, Congress, Supreme Court, Post Office, IRS, Social Security, President

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Trump Holds Lead in Poll of Florida GOP Primary Voters

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 500 likely Florida Republican Primary voters was conducted between March 7 and March 9, 2016, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were either very likely to vote or had already voted in the Republican presidential primary. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar Republican primaries in past elections. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Rick Scott, Mitt Romney, George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Richard Nixon